After the Supreme Court has granted bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, he is all set to renew his political innings, which could hold many surprises, both for his supporters and adversaries. Kejriwal is amongst the most unpredictable politicians, but somehow has his fingers on the pulse of the people, and therefore to anticipate his moves is never easy.
The Apex Court, while setting him free on bail, has also laid down certain conditions which forbid him from going to the Secretariat as also prohibit him from signing any files pertaining to the cases, in which he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate and subsequently the Central Bureau of Investigation. In other words, while he shall continue to remain the Chief Minister, he would be in office with curtailed powers that shall render him more or less ineffective.
Kejriwal, despite all his proclamations earlier of being an anarchist, is in no position to defy the Apex Court’s conditionalities and simultaneously is not the kind of politician who would continue to remain silent. He has to further the interests of the Aam Aadmi Party which he heads at all cost. Haryana Assembly elections are on, and the talks of a tie-up with the Congress have broken down. In addition, the Delhi Assembly polls are also round the corner and for him to survive politically, he has to somehow ensure that he makes a comeback in the national capital at least.
However, with his hands tied behind his back, Kejriwal has to fight the Bharatiya Janata Party on one hand, and the Congress on the other, even though the AAP and the Congress are a part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc. In this context, he has to find ways and means of overcoming the conditions in order to assert the rights of the elected government, which finds itself pushed into the corner by the overriding powers, which the Lt Governor as a representative of the Centre enjoys.
There are also apprehensions that the Delhi Assembly could be superseded by the Union Government, which could for the time being bring about President’s Rule in the capital till an alternative to the present system is worked out. The hypothetical situation would imply that the elected government would be dismissed to pave the way for the Centre’s complete takeover of Delhi.
There are multiple options that can be explored by the Aam Aadmi Party that had won the Delhi Assembly polls with record percentages, both in 2015 and 2020. The party also displaced the BJP in the Municipal Corporation and is facing flak for the breakdown of civic amenities during the monsoons. Its popularity is diminishing and unless something dramatic happens, the AAP shall not be able to replicate its earlier performances.
In such a scenario, many political pundits would think that Kejriwal should put in his papers and quit as the Chief Minister, while blaming the Centre for not allowing him to function effectively. Instead, he could either appoint his erstwhile deputy as the Chief Minister or even better his wife, Sunita, who has held the fort for the past six months while he was in jail.
There is the example of Lalu Prasad Yadav being replaced by Rabri Devi but in Delhi, Kejriwal has a better image and if he chooses to hand the baton to his wife, Sunita, and himself concentrates on campaigning first in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir and then in Maharashtra, he would put his opponents on the defensive.
Kejriwal could use his standing as a leader to further the chances of his party in these states or at least lay the foundation for their growth, by his campaigning. The AAP is recognized as a national party and it is important for its supremo to acquire a national stature, if he has to play a much larger role.
With Sunita Kejriwal as the Chief Minister, he would not have to worry about a by-election either since the Assembly polls would be held within six months, unless the Centre and the BJP have other plans. Sunita’s elevation would not ruffle feathers in the AAP camp either and it would amount to a smooth transition.
Kejriwal could make full statehood for Delhi as his main poll plank for the Assembly elections and if he wins on this demand, it would be extremely difficult for any Central government to ignore the wishes of the people. In any case, it needs to be reminded that many states have acquired the status of full states despite the fact that the total population in these places is much less than that of Delhi, Therefore to deny the right of self-rule to the citizens of the city is something which defies any political rationale even though it would not be easy to take the city out of the clutches of the bureaucracy, which has developed a vested interest in keeping all the powers with it, and denying it to the elected representatives.
The arguments in favour of statehood are very simple that it would end multiplicity of authority in the capital with the buck stopping at the Chief Minister’s Office. After all, people who elect a government do not know that it has limited powers and expect full accountability from it.
Granting full statehood was also a demand that was on the BJP manifesto for many years and the Congress, now in Opposition, may also like to support it. But for everything to follow, Kejriwal may have to resign first. Between us.