Rana Sodhi, BJP’s likely mascot

It is evident that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strategy in Punjab is to ensure that no party gets a simple majority in the Assembly elections, leading to a situation where the Centre would have little option but to impose President’s rule in the border state. This is the only way the Union Government can take the command of this sensitive region in its own hands to keep the Congress, Akalis and the Aam Aadmi Party out.
However, this arrangement would be only possible if none of the three principal parties is able to cross the halfway mark, which as per most opinion polls, seems to be the case. According to pollsters, the AAP is emerging as the single largest party with the Congress close behind.
However, ground reports from the state suggest that the Congress would be the dominant party with AAP and Akalis closely tied for the second position. What is to be seen is whether any of the three major players garner enough votes to position themselves for forming the next government.
It is also crystal clear that none of the three parties would under any circumstances tie up with each other or with the BJP for that matter. Forming a coalition government would imply the end of the party which agrees to support any of its rivals.
The example of this was when in Delhi after the 2013 poll results, the Congress, which had eight members, decided to support Arvind Kejriwal for the Chief Ministership since AAP had 28 seats, in order to keep the BJP (with 32 seats) out of power. In the election that followed this short-lived arrangement, the Congress was completely wiped out and AAP emerged as the main alternative to the BJP in the capital.
What is also surprising is that the BJP has decided not to play up Amarinder Singh, as the leader of their alliance despite his tall stature. Instead, an impression is being created that it was a conscious decision of the saffron brigade to keep the former CM out of the reckoning and instead use his experience to chalk out tactics, that would keep the Congress in check.
Prominent Sikh leader, Manjinder Singh Sirsa, who recently joined the BJP has reportedly ruled out Amarinder’s projection as the alliance face. There are two ways of looking at this. Firstly, it has to be ascertained whether Sirsa has the authorisation to make this kind of a statement. Secondly, if this was the BJP’s considered opinion, why this has not been articulated by Union Ministers, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat or Hardeep Singh Puri, who are overseeing the Assembly polls for their party.
Amarinder is perhaps fighting his final election from Patiala on the symbol of his own party and has otherwise been keeping a low profile. In 2017, he had publicly announced that this was his last poll and he would quit the Chief Ministership after four years and help the Congress high command to choose his successor. However, midway during his term, his coterie convinced him to carry on and he changed his mind about selecting his successor and instead had a face-off with the Congress central leadership, which led to his acrimonious ouster. There were charges made against him that he was hand in glove with both the Akalis and the BJP, which he vehemently denied.
Amarinder has often said that he is a soldier first and then a politician and therefore to avenge his humiliation, publicly vowed that he would work against the Congress in general and his bête noire, Navjot Singh Sidhu in particular, ensuring that they do not win. The BJP was overjoyed by his stance and multiple meetings between him and top BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah followed. However, sensing that he would not be able to get Congress legislators on his side, the BJP has seemingly altered its strategy. Amit Shah is an extremely pragmatic politician and instead of Amarinder, has chosen the Captain’s most trusted lieutenant and four-time MLA, Rana Gurmit Singh Sodhi as a pivotal player in the saffron scheme of things. Sodhi is contesting from Ferozepur city instead of Guru Har Sahai, which elected him in the past, and is providing crucial inputs to the BJP stalwart to diminish the Congress’ prospects.
Sodhi, who at one time wanted to head the Punjab unit of the Congress, in order to be in line of succession after Amarinder retired, is tipped for a bigger role in the BJP, which finds his entry to be as useful as that of Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam many years ago. It shall not be surprising if he supersedes the majority of BJP leaders in the state in view of the patronage he is receiving from Amit Shah.
The BJP is also banking on the support of Dera Sacha Sauda, which has a large following in the Malwa region of the state. The Dera’s chief, Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, was recently released on furlough for three weeks, a development which cannot be merely coincidental in the poll season. The Dera has in the past supported both the Congress and the Akalis, and this time is backing the BJP.
The ambiguity within the Congress regarding the CM face is over, but both Sidhu and Sunil Jakhar can upset the apple cart by their uncalled for public comments. Channi is, therefore, batting on a turning wicket. Between us.