India aims to become the third-largest economy by 2027, and a developed nation by 2047. The future of a nation is undeniably influenced by a range of domestic and global factors, both individually and in their interplay, as well as the nation’s capacity to effectively address constraints, tackle challenges, and capitalise on opportunities. While managing these factors is crucial, it is equally important to have strategic foresight, evolve the national discourse, and develop the human capital to support this ambitious journey.
NATIONAL CONVERSATION
First and foremost, India needs to shift its national conversation away from regional, religious, and socio-economic divides. While addressing inequalities and working towards unity and harmony are critical, the discourse tends to exacerbate fault lines rather than heal them. India needs to discard divisive rhetoric and emphasise a sustained dialogue on structural challenges, reforms, and inclusive growth.
Increased societal discord can stymie a nation’s progress and affect its global image. It is, therefore, important to shift focus from polarisation to collective growth, and to act as a unified nation rather than fragmented communities that fail to come together for the common good.
Political parties need to embrace basic decency in their interactions with one another. Elected representatives must engage in serious and sincere debates rather than resorting to incendiary political speeches in Parliament or Assembly to manipulate public sentiment, or worse, trigger chaos. There must be discussions on the disastrous consequences of the freebie culture that political parties are promoting to secure votes; on new and emerging threats; on bridging the rural-urban divide; on ease of living and better quality of life; on empowerment of all Indians and not just specific vote banks; on strategies to harness the potential of a vast population. Such dialogues will create awareness among citizens, encourage policy innovation, and also enhance India’s perception as a dynamic and progressive nation.
DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY
The adage “demography is destiny” holds particular relevance for a populous and diverse country like India, as its demography could either drive a powerful economic engine or, conversely, lead to significant instability. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion and 65% of Indians under the age of 35, an environment charged with political bitterness, driven by fault lines, and marked by frequent protests resembles a powder keg—volatile and ready to ignite at any moment. In addition, the proliferation of misinformation that distorts public perception, further complicates the landscape. These factors create conditions conducive to hostile forces to incite unrest to effect regime change, or to hinder India’s progress. It is also worth noting that anarchy and violence deter investors.
Another significant problem is the tendency to view issues through a narrow lens of self-interest. For instance, some voters cast their ballots based on identity politics, cash or freebies, undermining the democratic process. To fully leverage demographic strength, it is essential to develop human capital in health, education, and skills, as well as to ensure that individuals are well-informed, resilient against divisive and fake narratives, aspirational, and actively engaged in India’s growth story.
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
India’s vision to become a developed nation by 2047 is commendable. It also envisions a multi-polar world with India as a significant global pole. However, are there contingency plans in place for unforeseen events that could derail this vision?
Given the rapid technological advancements, shifting geopolitical sands, and India’s volatile neighbourhood, engaging in holistic scenario planning is essential. For a country as populous and diverse as India, such planning helps policymakers anticipate various futures, and develop strategies to navigate them effectively. Keeping the public informed about these scenarios can prevent major disruptions when one of the anticipated events unfolds.
Countries like Singapore and the United States exemplify this proactive approach. Singapore has developed long-term strategies to address potential economic and environmental challenges, while the US has invested in strategic assessment of future threats and opportunities, including risks associated with Artificial Intelligence being misused for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats. Such forward-thinking planning is a hallmark of nations that play, or aspire to play a significant role on the global stage.
By embracing systematic planning, India can better manage risks, seize emerging opportunities, and ensure sustainable growth amid uncertainty and change. While there are efforts at both the government and private levels, a more comprehensive approach to future-proofing is essential for a nation that sees itself as a global power.
2047 INDIA
As India continuously attempts to increase its sphere of influence, its path will be fraught with potential pitfalls. India’s rise might not be welcomed by all, and forces, both within and outside the country, will seek to undermine India’s growth story. India must address internal fault lines and enhance its national discourse, leverage its demographic strengths, and adopt a forward-thinking strategic approach.
2047 India must not resemble 2024 India, with economic vibrancy pushing it forward, while internal fault lines pushing it backward. 2047 India must not remain stagnated as the most advanced third-world country because 2024 India failed to rise above divides and take effective steps.
Semu Bhatt is a strategic adviser, analyst, and author.