The Pakistani cabinet recently gave its approval to signing of a new CIS-MOA or Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement with the United States. It is not the first time the US and Pakistan have concluded what is known as a foundational agreement to facilitate US sophisticated arms transfer to other countries.
Way back in 2005, Islamabad and Washington inked a CIS-MOA for a period of 15 years. This agreement expired about three years ago, but it was not renewed. This is one of the reasons why there was no excitement in Pakistan over this agreement and even the United States preferred to remain silent.
Significantly, even India has signed the CIS-MOA with the United States and the Government of India has not forcefully responded to this development. But the Indian media and foreign policy analysts have taken due note of it because the US yet again will be able to legally resume arms sale to Pakistan.
If Islamabad and Washington desired, signing of such an agreement would have been easy any time in the future as well. The main question is why now? What is the significance of the timing of signing such an agreement? Why didn’t Washington and Islamabad prefer to wait until the impending national elections are held and a new government is formed in Pakistan?
Pakistan has gone rather too close to China; and especially after the complete withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan there was little hope for the country to restore the kind of ally status it enjoyed with the US. The American military involvement in Afghanistan post the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US had elevated the status of Pakistan as a frontline ally of the US in the war against terrorism. Pakistan received billions of dollars of military assistance and sophisticated weapons and aircraft from the US which were less relevant to combat terrorism in Afghanistan and more useful to build up its strength against India.
The end of the US military presence in Afghanistan overnight terminated Pakistan’s strategic relevance and its ability to extract money and war materiel from the US. The cancellation of assistance by the Trump Administration and continued lack of attention by the Biden Administration to the country’s relations with Pakistan exacerbated the woes of a country whose economy was collapsing, law and order conditions were deteriorating, political instability was undermining good governance and the massive amount of Chinese investments as part of CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) had not borne the desired results.
China, the so-called all-weather ally of Pakistan, was not of adequate help in bailing out Pakistan from the economic distress, forcing Islamabad to look up to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But for the US support, it would not have been possible for Pakistan to get IMF assistance. Pakistan did approach Saudi Arabia and Turkey to join the CPEC, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, to make the proposed projects viable. But Beijing was uncomfortable about making its BRI third party projects. The US sanctions on Iran related to nuclear issues also made it almost impossible to implement the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project that would have helped Pakistan overcome its massive energy shortages.
Pakistan could not have sustained most of its strategic eggs in the Chinese basket without continuing its relations with the United States and European countries. While China remains a principal strategic partner, trade and investment sectors compel Pakistan not to gravitate completely towards China. Choosing sides in the emerging Sino-US strategic competition was considered a difficult choice by Pakistan also because of consistently rising Indo-US defence cooperation.
The recent diplomatic moves by Pakistan to improve ties with the United States are guided by above considerations. But seen from the American perspective, it is clear that Washington too has been reaching out to Pakistan and the recent agreement is one among many developments that indicate winds of change in Washington’s engagement with Pakistan.
In July last, General Michael Erik Kurilla, Chief of US Central Command, had a meeting with Pakistan Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir. The two sides discussed “strengthening the military-to-military relations between the Pakistani Armed Forces and USCENTCOM with particular focus on counter terrorism, military trauma combat casualty care, security cooperation, disaster relief, and humanitarian assistance opportunities.”
Also last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto held a telephonic conversation and said that the Pakistani people had suffered enormously from terrorist attack and underlined the US commitment to continued partnership with Pakistan on counter-terrorism.
These events indicate circular history where the US and Pakistan would continue to have military cooperation involving both arms transfer to Pakistan and counter-terrorism cooperation. India has witnessed the fallout of such US-Pakistan cooperation in the past. Should India worry now as it appears that such a history may repeat yet again?
Not really. First, the US-India defence cooperation is more robust than ever. Second, it is China that backs Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and not the United States. Third, it is India, and not Pakistan, that is preferred by the US as a partner to maintain an open, free and inclusive Indo-Pacific critically under challenge by China. Fourth, while India has by and large dealt with cross-border terrorism, it is Pakistan that repeatedly expresses its concerns over cross-border terrorism along its border with Afghanistan. If US-Pakistan counter terrorism cooperation is aimed at the Pak-Afghan border, there is no reason why India should be concerned.
India’s mature response to the recent CIS-MOA agreement, thus, is a welcome development. However, India has to cautiously watch whether sophisticated US arms will flow into Pakistan in the name of combating terrorism, particularly weapons systems with which Pakistan wants to challenge Indian security.
Chintamani Mahapatra is Founder Chairperson of Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and former Professor at JNU.