‘Iran is desperate. It’s a wounded animal. What if it conducts any nuclear tests before Trump comes to power?’
NEW DELHI: Early Saturday morning, a projectile fired from Yemen by the Houthis hit Israel’s Tel Aviv, breaking a few glass windows and leaving Israelis running for their bomb shelters. This was not the first such attack by the Houthis in recent weeks, however a conversation with Israeli observers shows that they are not equating this sudden spurt in attacks by the Houthis with a Hezbollah assault. They say that the Houthis are more of a “nuisance” than anything else, that these attacks are a “harassment” of the Israeli population at a time when tectonic changes have taken place in the region, strengthening Israel’s position, even though Israel has started conducting airstrikes on the Houthis.
Israeli observers tell this writer from Tel Aviv that their main concerns now are the Iranian and Syrian fronts. Will Iran go nuclear and when? Will there be some dramatic move by Iran in the next few weeks, as Donald Trump, known for his anti-Iran stance, becomes President in less than a month from now? “This is a dangerous time. Iran is desperate. It’s a wounded animal. What if it conducts any nuclear tests before Trump comes to power? But then it’s too short a window, so probably not,” speculated an observer.
At the same time Israelis are amazed at how events have unfolded post October 7, 2023, when the Hamas terror attack on Israel took place, where Iran has gone from being the biggest backer of terrorism in the region—operating through proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah—to a weakened shadow of its former self. Hamas is more or less decimated, while Hezbollah, Iran’s most important proxy to keep Israel on its toes, is leaderless and severely spent. With Assad’s fall, Iran’s ability for the easy transportation of arms to the Hezbollah through Syria has been disrupted. Adding to Iran’s troubles is the decimation of its air defence system by Israeli fighter jets in October, particularly its Russian S-300 batteries guarding strategic locations. Israel had also hit Iran’s drone production facilities, apart from its “planetary mixers” that were being used to produce solid fuel for Tehran’s long range ballistic missiles that had been used to hit Israel on 1 October. This has impaired Iran’s ability to produce such missiles and target Israel. To revive all this will take years, plus money that Iran is short of.
Hence, the worry is that Iran may accelerate the process of going nuclear, because that is the only option—a shield—that they are left with. In fact, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has speeded up its uranium enrichment process and is currently at a 60% purity level, inching towards the 90% purity needed for weapons grade uranium. According to a Reuters report earlier this month, “Tehran already has enough material enriched to up to 60% purity to be able to make four nuclear weapons if it enriches it further, according to an IAEA yardstick.” Quoting these statistics, Beni Sabti, an Iranian-origin researcher in the Iran program at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, tells this author that Iran still does not know how to make the bomb, but a lot of talk is emanating from Tehran about going nuclear, so attention must be paid to that. “As a regime, if Iran does not pursue its nuclear program then it will be just another regime, which is not acceptable to it,” adds Sabti.
Other observers believe that it would be reckless on Iran’s part to weaponise its nuclear program, and hope that such an “awkward situation” would not arise, and that “the Americans would not let them do it”. “They (Iran) would have learnt their lesson. They are vulnerable but the possibility of some wrong judgement or miscalculation by someone cannot be ruled out”, the observer added.
On the Syrian front, Israel is wary of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who have overthrown the Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad and are now in power in Damascus. In spite of the current whitewashing by the United States of Jolani’s ISIS and Al Qaeda “past”, Israel is worried about having these rebels—essentially Al Qaeda and ISIS—as its neighbour. Israeli observers believe that Syria will witness more chaos and Israel will be in the crosshairs of the HTS and other similar Sunni groups. That even Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey, a known backer of ISIS, has inserted itself in the picture prominently, complicates things. These groups may hate a Shia Iran, especially since Tehran was one of Assad’s main backers, but they hate the Jews and Israel much more. Observers say that given Iran’s ability to bridge the Shia-Sunni divide, as seen in the case of a Sunni Hamas, which Iran armed and backed against Israel, the possibility of some sort of a Shia-Sunni rapprochement in Syria is a possibility, which will not be good news for Israel.
It’s to pre-empt the possibility of Syria becoming the primary front of terrorism against Israel that the Benjamin Netanyahu government has captured a large part the Syrian Golan Heights including Syria’s highest point, Mount Hermon, which is located only 40 km from Damascus along the Syria-Lebanon border, and offers an untramelled view of not just Syria, but also Lebanon. This strategically important area will help Israel monitor any projectiles launched at Israel from either Lebanon or Syria.
Moreover, by conducting more than 500 airstrikes Israel has destroyed at least 80% of Assad’s military arsenal including his air force and navy, so that the rebels are not able to lay their hands on these. This has also ensured that the Syrian airspace has been freed up for use by Israel for any air or missile strikes on Iran, if the need arises in the future, say observers. The possibility of such a need arising is rather strong.
According to Beni Sabti, “Iran has not learnt its lesson. Old leaders (Iran’s mullahs) do not change their ways. They become arrogant, they think they are invincible. So Iran will not change its way. This is a temporary setback for Iran. They will take this temporary ‘ceasefire’ (in Lebanon) to recover, to become stronger. And Iran is already looking for new groups in Syria. Hezbollah too is not finished. They are taking a break.”
Is this then peace, even if temporary, for Israel, with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot? Observers say “no”. “This is not peace. This is a situation where there are no open hostilities. No one knows how long it will hold.” “The region is fragile. We know how much we don’t know. As the Americans say, there are unknown-unknowns,” said an observer.
Unknown-unknowns—unidentified risks that are also unexpected.