Pune: On 25 December—barely a month after the disengagement along the Line of Actual Control—China dropped another bombshell. It announced the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam in the Medog County, Tibet. This $137 billion project, which will generate 40,000 Megawatts of electricity annually, will be the largest hydroelectric project in the world and aims to harness the power of the Brahmaputra (or Yarlung Tsangpo, as it is called in Tibet) in the area of the great bend, where the river makes a U-turn before entering India. To put it in perspective, it is three times larger than the present largest dam in the world, the Three Gorges Dam the Chinese had built across the Yangtze River. This project dwarfs even that and holds greater dangers.
The dam is cause for concern. The Brahmaputra is one of the world’s largest rivers, originating in Tibet, entering India in Arunachal Pradesh (where it is called Siang) and then flows into Bangladesh (called Jamuna there), where it merges with the Ganges and eventually completes its 2,900 km long journey in the Bay of Bengal. Over 60 million people are dependent, directly or indirectly, on this mighty river, especially in the lower riparian states of India and Bangladesh.
The construction of a large dam in one of the most seismically volatile areas of the world could impact the earth’s plate across the entire Tibetan Plateau and as far as the Indo-Gangetic plains. As it is earthquakes have been striking Tibet with increasing frequency. The construction of massive dams, tunnels (four tunnels, each over 20 km long are to be drilled beneath the mountains to funnel the water) and massive reservoirs in this sensitive region will have a long-term ecological impact, which cannot be gauged at this juncture. The Three Gorges Dam created a reservoir whose very weight slowed the rotation of the earth. A dam three times larger could create for greater imbalances.
China has shrugged off India’s concerns of reduced water flows, by stating that it is a “Run-of-the-River” project, which does not store waters, but merely uses it for hydroelectric purposes. But its very construction gives it the ability to hold the waters, and at a later stage, create channels to divert them towards the Chinese hinterland. The mighty Brahmaputra receives over 70% of its waters only after it enters Arunachal Pradesh and is joined by the Dibang and the Lohit distributaries. But China’s ability to divert part of its flow is worrying since it will be able to store the waters in the dry season and release it in the wet months, causing floods.
And one has to only look at their Mekong River project which China launched in the early 1990s. 11 massive dams were constructed on the Mekong River, touting the usual line of how it would not affect the flow downstream. Eventually much of the water was harnessed and diverted, affecting water levels, agricultural yields, reduction of forests and green cover, fishing, and the daily livelihood of people in downstream Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. It not only reduced the overall water availability; the lack of rich sedimentation which the river carried with it, reduced crop levels by over 18% in downstream areas.
Unfortunately, there is no water sharing treaty between India and China and no international mechanism exists that addresses the concerns of lower riparian states. Seeing past patterns, China is likely to go ahead with the project and dismiss the concerns of India and Bangladesh.
India has a 15-year window till 2040, when the dam will be completed. It must use this time to evolve its own mitigating actions. This will involve formulating water sharing and advance warning mechanisms with China; and the creation of dams, catchment areas, canals and distributaries to optimally utilise the waters in our own areas. This would, of course, raise hackles in Bangladesh, and water harnessing and sharing mechanisms will have to be deliberately and carefully worked out with them as well.
It is unlikely that China will enter into an arrangement like the Indus Waters Treaty which Prime Minister Nehru and President Ayub Khan signed in 1960. That was excessively generous, to say the least. It gave the three large western rivers of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum to Pakistan while India retained the waters of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. In effect, it meant that 70% of the water flowed into Pakistan. There have been calls to revoke the treaty, “Since water and blood cannot flow together.” But that is easier said than done. Even if the treaty is scrapped, it does not mean that the water would be shut off like a tap. It would take 20 years to develop a network of dams, canals, distributaries and catchment areas to harness the waters and divert them eastwards into India. A better solution would be to optimally utilise the waters allotted to us. As it is, over 30% of the waters of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej flow into Pakistan (and we get blamed each time there are floods there) since we have not developed the mechanism to harness the flow. If the wasted water, which is allowed to flow into Pakistan, is properly tapped and diverted, it will alleviate the situation in Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat considerably.
With Bangladesh, water is an emotive issue, especially with the angry regime in power now. 54 rivers flow from India into Bangladesh and every year, India is blamed for everything—from floods to drought, crop failure, high salinity and diminishing water tables, poor fishing and agricultural yields. This is based on the misplaced perception that India is bottling the rivers. The Farakka barrage raises a storm of protest, as did the plans to interlink rivers within India to curb floods. The failure to reach an agreement on the Teesta waters—which was about to be signed but had to be scuttled due to the objections of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee—is also a sore point. More than any other nation, India and Bangladesh are linked by common rivers and they will be severely affected by the Chinese dam on the Brahmaputra, in fact, even more than us.
The subcontinent is one of the most water-stressed areas in the world, and as global warming takes its toll, it will become even more so. The last year was the hottest on record—a record that is being broken with each passing year. As temperatures rise, they will lead to intense monsoons and heavy flooding initially ( as we are seeing now). Then, there would be a gradual decline in rainwater and glacial flows. Each passing year will reduce the availability of water and the rivers—which are the lifeline of the subcontinent. They have to be continually replenished and allowed to flow freely. Else, the dam water issue could lead to rising temperatures in more ways than one.
* Ajay Singh is the author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a recipient of the Rabindranath Tagore International Award for Art and Literature and a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.