The third phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections on Sunday will see a high voltage contest from Lucknow Central, as Mulayam Singh Yadav’s younger daughter-in-law, Aparna Yadav takes on Rita Bahuguna Joshi, daughter of former UP Chief Minister H.N. Bahuguna. Bahuguna Joshi had won the seat in 2012 as a Congress candidate, but is now contesting on a Bharatiya Janata Party ticket.
Lucknow Cantonment has a mix of voters ranging from government employees to daily wage labourers. Joshi is riding high on her previous victory in 2012, where she defeated BJP’s sitting MLA Suresh Chandra Tewari, while Aparna Yadav is confident that her work as a social activist, coupled with the pro-development image of his brother-in-law and current UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, will cruise her through this tight tussle.
“Winning isn’t my concern anymore, margin is. With encouraging support of the people that I have worked for and people’s trust on our Prime Minister, I see myself winning by double the margin,” said Rita Bahuguna Joshi told this newspaper after addressing an overwhelming crowd in the Naya Sardari Kheda area of Lucknow on Wednesday evening.
However, Aparna Yadav too looked confident as she stepped out of her SUV and extended her greetings to the students of KKC College in Lucknow’s Hazratganj on Thursday morning. “I’m a social worker and my work has already proved my credentials. Moreover, people in Lucknow city have appreciated the work done by Akhilesh Bhaiya and these sentiments will translate into votes in favour of the party,” Aparna Yadav told this newspaper.
Both Joshi and Yadav have been very sharp-tongued against each other. While Yadav accused Joshi of over-confidence, Joshi told this newspaper that the younger bahu of the Yadav clan “will learn many lessons” in this election.
TOUGH BATTLE
Lucknow Cantonment isn’t an SP stronghold. In fact, the party has never won the seat after 1980, while the BJP has won it on five occasions, ever since Congress lost its grip in 1991. The caste card too is not in the favour of the SP. Overwhelmingly upper caste, out of the three lakh registered voters in the area, 80,000 are Brahmins and 40,000 are Thakurs. Both Thakurs and Brahmins are said to be going with the BJP. On the other hand, SP’s core voters of Muslims and Yadavs do not have a huge presence here.
Interestingly, in 15 Assembly elections, Brahmin candidates have won this seat 10 times.
Evidently, the veteran Rita Joshi seems to have an edge over the young Aparna Yadav. Joshi was the only candidate from Congress to stop the BJP’s Suresh Chandra Tewari’s consecutive wins from this constituency in 2012. Furthermore, only Joshi managed to defeat the BJP in the last 25 years.
“I have seen Rita Bahuguna Joshi’s father’s work and hers as well. She is easily accessible and so motivated even at this age. Our votes were with her when she was in Congress and will again go to her now that she is in BJP,” said retired Army personnel Prahlad Singh of Naya Sardari Kheda.
However, experts say that it will be a mistake to write off Aparna Yadav. Apart from being a social activist and a graduate in International Affairs and Politics from Manchester University, 26-year-old Yadav has been actively involved in the development works in the constituency even though she is not an MLA. She claims to have facilitated the “construction of 257 roads in the constituency, installation of 57 submersible hand pumps, repairing of close to 70 drains and inclusion of 2,500 pensions to the social service scheme for women”.
“Aparna Yadav has been working for social development in Lucknow and has received several awards, appreciations and recognitions. And being a family member of the Chief Minister, the state machinery will definitely put their weight behind her in her electoral debut. Also, Joshi, who was once critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has now joined hands with him, so she might face some credibility issues. It’s a tight competition,” said Awdesh Kumar Singh, Assistant Director, RCUES, Lucknow University.
HOW THE STAGE WAS SET
According to political pundits, around one and a half years ago, when Rita Bahuguna Joshi was still in Congress, fielding Aparna Yadav from Lucknow Cantonment appeared to be a great idea for the SP. However, with Bahuguna Joshi joining BJP, things turned dicey, but it was too late to pull back.
“The talk of launching Aparna Yadav in politics began around one and a half years ago. At that time Rita Bahuguna Joshi was with Congress and she herself knew she could not win on a Congress ticket. Bahuguna Joshi even approached Mulayam Singh Yadav to secure a ticket from the SP, but failed to strike a deal. Seeing this, the Yadav clan was confident that Lucknow Cantonment would be the best option for Aparna Yadav’s launch,” said Rajan Pandey, co-author of Battleground UP: Politics in the land of Ram.
Experts also believe that SP had no other option but to field Aparna Yadav from Lucknow Cantonment.
“They cannot afford to remove Ravidas Mehrotra, Abhishekh Mishra or Shewta Singh from their constituencies and give that to Aparna Yadav, as these candidates have a stronghold in their respective constituencies. Cantonment might not have been a safe seat for the SP, but this time around the odds were pretty even,” added Pandey.
Meanwhile, according to a political analyst who did not wish to be named, a strong conspiracy theory has been circulating in the city that Akhilesh Yadav gave the “unsafe” Cantonment seat to Aparna Yadav as losing from there would ensure her exit from politics. The analyst added that initially, Akhilesh Yadav and Dimple Yadav opposed the candidature of Aparna Yadav and she was given the ticket only to pacify Mulayam Singh Yadav.
However, when The Sunday Guardian asked Aparna Yadav about this, she rubbished the claims, stating that the family was united.