WASHINGTON DC: The U.S. military is still powerful. Maybe the world’s strongest military. But the words ‘grey zone’ seem to cause the entire force and the Commander-in-Chief and his staff to short circuit.
You may have seen the recent headlines like “Philippines and Chinese coast guard ships collide in South China Sea” (NBC news) and “China, Philippines accuse each other of ramming ships in South China Sea” (Reuters). Seeing those headlines, you might think what happened was an incident in which both parties—or no one—was at fault.
What actually happened was Chinese ships entered Philippines waters and deliberately attacked a Filipino ship. Why isn’t the U.S., a defence treaty ally of the Philippines responding to this and the many other attacks by China? It’s that magic incantation that paralyzes Americans: grey zone.
The U.S. military is still powerful. Maybe the world’s strongest military.
But the words “grey zone” seem to cause the entire force and the Commander-in-Chief and his staff to short circuit.
WHAT IS ‘GREY ZONE’?
Grey zone is usually invoked when an adversary does something that harms us, sometimes seriously, but we don’t figure it’s worth going to war over.
It could be Chinese ships and aircraft interfering—brazenly and often dangerously—with US military ships and aircraft going about their business in the South China Sea.
Or, as seen repeatedly over the last 18 months, the Chinese ramming and water-cannoning America’s Filipino allies trying to resupply their own ships in their own territory.
Just call this “grey zone” and the Americans act as if they can’t respond. As if it’s a choice between doing nothing, doing nothing much, or thermonuclear war.
We tell ourselves this is just the Chinese “acting up” rather than what it is: acts of war.
Yes, it’s at the lower end of the conflict spectrum, but the other side doesn’t make such neat distinctions. It’s all “war” to them—even if there’s no shooting involved.
And, if they do these grey zone operations right, “kinetic” warfare is much easier when the time comes, or may not even be necessary.
CHINA’S GREY ZONE WINS
Through these operations China is improving its position and capabilities while weakening its enemies and their allies—not least psychologically. It creates a sense of helplessness, bafflement, inevitable defeat.
And American reliability is being shredded.
For most of the last 30 years, the Americans even convinced themselves that the PRC wasn’t much of a threat if “grey zone” was all they could do. Thus, no need to get America’s own defences in order.
This reflects two different conceptions of war. Americans require gun play and an official statement that we’re at war. Until then, we reckon there’s still a chance to make friends and are inclined to overlook all sorts of unfriendly behaviour.
The Chinese Communists, however, see war as a spectrum involving a range of actions that harm and disadvantage the enemy—setting it up for defeat—and most of those activities don’t involve “kinetic” activity (i.e. shooting).
China’s Coast Guard, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, maritime militia and fishing fleet are hard power tools it’s used to take de facto control of the South China Sea over the last decade—mostly in actions that have been “threat deflated” by calling them grey zone.
But look at the outcomes: effective control over some of the most strategic and economically important waters in the world, shored up by new artificial islands/military outposts, resulting in a demoralization of our friends, and a questioning of our commitment.
China’s intentions were obvious. But it seemed just not worth doing much to stop them.
One USINDOPACOM commander even condescendingly laughed off the buildup as “the great wall of sand.”
We act as though avoiding anything “escalatory” is the main thing when deciding on a response. That usually means backing off.
Meanwhile, the other side risks lives and just might not care if somebody gets killed. In fact, China might welcome it in some cases.
In the case of Japan, China would like the Japanese to fire just one shot—and the PRC would claim they were provoked into a fierce, kinetic response that involves grabbing territory. The same with the Philippines.
GREY ZONE IN THE U.S.
Grey zone is more than the South China Sea and it doesn’t just involve military and paramilitary operations. Nor is it always directed against military targets.
PRC “grey zone” drug warfare is already killing Americans by the hundreds of thousands.
The fentanyl onslaught killed over 70,000 Americans last year (while injuring far more) and the total Chinese fentanyl “butcher’s bill” is up towards one million Americans over the last decade.
But since it’s grey zone we don’t fight back. Not the Democrats, not the Republicans.
Chinese cyber warfare stole most of the US Office of Personnel Management’s files on 23 million Americans holding security clearances, as well as the blueprints for F35 fighter and C17 transport designs, along with a limitless amounts of US corporate intellectual property destroying entire sectors of the American economy. And they are setting up in our key infrastructure, ready to hit us.
The penalties? Next to nothing. It’s “grey zone” after all. Can’t risk nuclear war—or upsetting Wall Street and the US-China Business Council, you know.
This is hurting us badly and weakening our national defences while giving the PRC the advantage.
RESPONDING TO GREY ZONE ACTIONS
What should we do?
First, recognize it for what it is. The Filipinos, who have been under constant attack, have rejected the term grey zone completely and now call the ramming of their ships and attempts to seize their territory what it is: Illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive (ICAD) actions.
Put even more clearly, these “grey zone” acts are acts of war.
Our response doesn’t need to directly match the offending behaviour.
Nor need it be proportional or “in kind”.
But it needs to make the other side regret having done what they did and afraid they’ll get hurt even more if they continue.
This requires a willingness to take some risk. If you won’t take risks the aggressor has the advantage.
If Chinese ships are interfering and asking for collision, don’t back off. If they are pumping drugs into the US, hit them hard—even if Wall Street complains or things at Wal-Mart cost a little more.
Perhaps suspend the People’s Bank of China from the US dollar system for a year.
Or maybe a total technology export ban—sudden and enforced.
And to really hit them, expose the CCP top leadership’s personal corruption.
But will we?
One wonders. For America’s elite it seems nothing is ever quite worth pushing back over.
It’s the fear of escalation that’s part and parcel of grey zone paralysis. America’s elite can always convince themselves it’s the “adult” or “statesmanlike” approach.
But don’t be surprised if the Chinese keep pushing—and making life miserable for our friends in Japan, the Philippines—and for Americans who lose family members to fentanyl and jobs to Chinese companies built off the theft of American technology.
And it doesn’t get any easier the longer you wait. It gets harder. And when the PRC’s friends—Russia, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba—step up their own “grey zone” activities, encouraged by China’s success, things will get much worse.
Usually paralysis is caused by an external stimulus or something outside one’s control.
But when it comes to grey zone paralysis it’s entirely our choice.
Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer and former U.S. diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self Defense Force, and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book, “When China Attacks: A Warning To America.”