John Curtice, UK’s top political scientist forecasts a 99% chance of a Labour win, no matter when the election is
This week the Conservative Party launched two controversial videos to support the campaign of their candidate for Mayor of London, Susan Hall. The “Life under Labour” theme was intended to show London as the crime capital of Europe and Birmingham as a broken city, with specific accountability to Sadiq Khan and the bankrupt Birmingham Labour Council, who are in debt to the tune of £2.9 billion. The new genre of political dystopia advertising was widely questioned, not least because it was narrated by an American accent and filmed in black and white, with some scenes directly lifted from archive chaotic events in New York, which were redacted after the furore. Was this theme to suggest that this is how US views London and Birmingham? Or has campaigning become like modern art, if it gets you talking it is a success?
Labour’s new confidence was pushing for a May general election, which to their disappointment is now discounted. Westminster talk is now focussed around late June/July or November 14, the June option would avoid getting entangled with the US election but would be after the May local and regional elections and by-elections, which are forecast to be dismal for the Tories, but before another summer of more illegal migrants. The November option would buy the Prime Minister time to further improve the current economic, and illegal migrant situation (deporting some to Rwanda). This week saw a record number of illegal migrants taking the total for 2024 total to 4,644 on 27th March. The government has reduced inflation down to 3.4% but interest rates are still 5.25%, which makes mortgages exorbitant for so many.
John Curtice, UK’s top polling guru and political scientist forecasts a 99% chance of a Labour win, no matter when the election is. Tory MPs are preparing for defeat in their constituencies, this time there are 63 Conservative MPs who have chosen not to stand in the next general election compared to 17 Labour MPs; snap elections make consideration trickier, thus the past 3 general elections have seen fewer stand downs.
The likelihood of a leadership challenge will only arise if the May by-elections are the predicted disaster, some would like Penny Mordaunt in No 10. If a no-confidence vote in Rishi Sunak occurred it would be hard to stall a general election and there would be many contenders for the leadership: Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, Grant Schapps, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick. Sunak will have to decide the most dignified exit course.
Conservative MPs remain divided, the 1922 Committee are continually preoccupied with the direction of the party. Factions such as Popular Conservatism (PopCon) supported by Liz Truss and Jacob Rees Mogg; and the New Conservatives created by Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates vie for influence. PopCon stand for individual freedom, minimum bureaucracy, less immigration, leave the ECHR and other conservative values; they see themselves as the grown-ups in the room. The new Conservatives are mostly Boris Johnson’s Red Wall MPs who are dedicated to the 2019 manifesto: they want to field candidates in marginal seats, their immigration policies include reducing work visas/reforming visa applications, capping refugees and their social housing. The New Conservatives want to change what they call “the new establishment based in London but global in its loyalties”—this is comprised of civil servants, big business, parts of the legal profession and most of the media.
Meanwhile, it seems the Conservative Party are recruiting in Rishi’s image, young loyalists without much experience.
Labour have recognised the key issues, immigration, housing and education. They promise economic stability and to spend money wisely. They offer similar promises to the Tories on tackling street crime, the housing shortage and “levelling up” which is now called “breaking down barriers to opportunity”, improving the Armed forces service and accommodation numbers, and they are solidly behind NATO. On the face of it there is not much to differentiate between Labour and Tory so far. Some Conservative voters are prepared to accept Keir Starmer, naively ignoring the prospect of nationalising industries and services. Sir Keir is thought to be very much a barrister brain, a lot attention to detail but folks are concerned about the lack of lateral and strategic thinking.
In a tactical effort alienated West Country Tory voters are attracted to the Liberal Democrats who favour an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and more local devolution.
Nobody expects the Liberal Democrats to be in government. In previous elections there is an early surge that does not manifest in much; if Labour wins some policy detail which is opaque now will need to be in hand. On the other hand, the right-wing populist party Reform UK—the Brexit Party led by Richard Tice has risen to 16%. Reform already have former Conservative Party co-Chairman as their first MP and they are ambitious for more. This week Danny Kruger of the New Conservatives was leaked on a tape conceding the Tories are “not a very conservative party in lots of ways”, in the tape he said that he was sympathetic regarding Reform’s criticisms of the Conservative Party, but he did not support the idea Reform could replace the Conservative Party, which is Reform’s objective, Kruger called them “a destructive force”. He admitted growing concerns about Reform attracting some of the Tory vote and did not think a pact for Reform to stand down candidates in Tory seats, as in 2019, was likely.
What Reform, PopCon and New Conservatives have in common is lower taxation. The incumbent Chancellor has only reduced National Insurance contributions by 2pence and kept the triple lock on pensions, which means the government generously guarantee that pension payments will rise by whichever is the highest- earnings, inflation or 2.5%.
Current voting intention according to YouGov stands at Conservative: 21% (+2 from 19-20 Mar); Labour: 40% (-4); Reform UK: 16% (+1); Lib Dem: 10% (+1); Green: 8% (=); SNP: 3% (=).