With the Prime Minister’s impending visit, the readily strengthening strategic alliance with France enables India to leverage these ties and seek similar partnerships with other European countries.
New Delhi
Images from the Capitol building housing the elected representatives of the US Congress have been the talk across the globe. The enlivening reception accorded to the Indian Prime Minister, was quite unprecedented as far as the recent history of state visits by any leader is concerned. As heartening as they seem, those images must not truncate our collective analysis of another upcoming state visit by the Prime Minister—one which would be more sombre in all likelihood—to France in order to take part in French National Day, popularly known as the Bastille Day. While analysing the current developments, it would serve us well to appraise Indo-French ties in the backdrop of the Indo-Pacific Region, the conflict in Ukraine and then extrapolate the strategic interests of India within the broader canvas of India-EU relations.
INDO-PACIFIC AND THE SHADOW OF CHINA
As India and France continue to support an inclusive multi-polar order while prioritizing strategic autonomy, in the 36th round of their Strategic Dialogue on 5 January 2023 with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Bonne, the two countries discussed the roadmap of their partnership in the Indo-Pacific. The partnership between the two is viewed as a practical framework of convergence between major powers in the East and the West. As the Indo-Pacific assumes importance as the centre of geopolitical activity in the world, tension lines that range from economic to environmental, and political to strategic have drawn many actors into the region. Given their common interests and capabilities in the region, the evolving nature of the region’s dynamics necessitates a pragmatic approach to utilize the full potential of their relationship.
With respect to the rise of China, France has developed particular concerns regarding what Paris perceives as Chinese attempts to intimidate and provoke European nations into endorsing a “One-China” policy. Deeply critical of China’s assault of Hong-Kong’s political autonomy, French President Emmanuel Macron has also been opposed to China’s aggressive diplomatic approach, known as “wolf warrior diplomacy” adopted under Chinese President Xi Jinping. A Pew Research Poll revealed a significant rise in France’s unfavourable views towards China, from 42% two decades ago to 70% in 2020. Paris has explicitly highlighted the potential consequences of China’s hegemonic ambitions, emphasising that if left unchallenged, they could undermine freedom, development, and opportunities. Consequently, France has taken the lead in Europe’s response to China. In the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), France has extended its strategic interests due to its expansive territories, sizable population, and substantial military capabilities, as a diplomatic means to counter-balance China.
THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS
For India, the geopolitical consequences of the conflict in Ukraine remain obscure at best for now. India’s perspective ranges from gauging the levels to which Russian dependency on the China has increased following sanctions imposed by many Western countries, to reasoning whether in the face of an apparent NATO comeback in the region, could the European countries led by France and Germany be thinking about enhancing their military capabilities to address the two objectives of responding to the Chinese threat as well as preventing America from becoming all too powerful in the region. Assessments are still ongoing because the response of India to the conflict in Ukraine has also been evolving over time. In the beginning, it had to ensure that its supply chain of military equipment remain unaffected given the friction with China that was at its peak at that point of time. Then, it turned to discounted oil from Russia to offset the economic consequences that have arisen due to the twin blows of the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. Today, it finds itself relatively cushioned from the global disruptions. And after a period of criticizing India’s position on the conflict, several countries of Europe have gradually started to acknowledge India’s legitimate concerns, on account of persuasive diplomacy by India and importantly, the role played by a country like France in transmitting the channels of communication between India and EU.
FRANCE AS AN ENABLER IN INDIA-EU RELATIONS
With the Prime Minister’s impending visit, the readily strengthening strategic alliance with France enables India to leverage these ties and seek similar partnerships with other European countries. Given the increasing security complexities faced by India in the area, particularly from China and Pakistan, it is imperative for India’s geostrategic interests to forge security partnerships within the EU.
As France holds a prominent position within the EU, Paris can facilitate and promote further opportunities for India to strengthen connections with other European players in the IOR, to establish and maintain a stable security framework in the region. Considering President Macron’s re-election in April 2022, it is highly probable that India and France will actively pursue their shared interests in the Indo-Pacific, while also attempting to involve other European countries.
On the economic front, the trade ministers of India and France have engaged in conversations concerning the ongoing negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between India and the European Union, along with the priority areas of the India-EU FTA. With the politico-economic will of France to invest in India, the purchase of Rafale and the recent Airbus order has played its part in adding value to the partnership. With the recent visit of Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry to Paris and Rome in April 2023 and India currently holding the G20 presidency, India has successfully completed four rounds of negotiations with the EU with respect to the FTA. Further, under the French Presidency at the Council of the European Union (January-June 2022), India and the EU have also resumed negotiations on investment protection and geographical indications.
INDIA-EU IN THE BROADER ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC
SCENARIO
The upcoming visit might see the announcement of the Rafale-M jet as the winner for the Indian Navy’s carrier-based requirements, in addition to progress expected to be made in the fields of space cooperation, nuclear energy, trade etc. Notwithstanding figures like the nearly 100 billion euros of trade between them, the recent elevation of another EU country, Italy’s ties with India to the level of a “Strategic Partnership”, a recent multi-national military exercise named Iniochos 2023 begets attention here. Apart from India’s strategic partner France, another country that is gradually gaining attention in the Indian strategic mind space is the Mediterranean country of Greece, as observed with the participation of Indian Air Force in the air exercises hosted by Greece. Though civilizational ties go several centuries back, both the countries have been enhancing their diplomatic cooperation of late to counter common threats.
A common evolving threat is the state of Turkey which has had a long-standing feud with Greece over control of several islands in the eastern Mediterranean. India too is discernibly irked with Turkey’s continuous support to Pakistan over the Kashmir issue and its funding of extremist Islamist groups in the sub-continent. Considering such developments, it is only natural that India progressively rejigs its strategic calculations. The selling of defence equipment to Armenia can be seen as a visible move of that strategic rejig. Talking about defence equipment, it needs iteration that Greece, like India operates the French Rafale jets and has the membership of both EU and NATO. Hence, it could be inferred that after France, India will steadily cultivate with other EU countries like Greece and Italy in response to the rapidly evolving geo-strategic contours. This is likely to have reverberations for the future of the broader India-EU engagement.
CONCLUSION
While the visit coincides with the 25th year of the Strategic Partnership between India and France, Indian presence at the French Bastille Day would also be felt through the three Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jets that are all set to participate at the parade flypast over the Champs Elysees, Paris. The visit comes at an opportune time as France has emerged as a reliable mediator for India’s engagement with EU, while offering avenues for strengthening security alliances and economic relations. As the two continue to pursue shared interests, they are likely to collaborate with other like-minded European countries through French mediation. The visit may witness advancements in several areas of engagement, while signalling a potential recalibration of India’s strategic calculations. Overall, the visit holds significance for the broader India-EU relations in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Manish Barma and Shreya Sinha are doctoral candidates at Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU.