NEW DELHI: Amb. Sujan Chinoy lists seven ‘Ts’ that impact national security strategies in any geography: trade, technology, territorial disputes, terrorism, tenets, transparency, and trust.
Ambassador Sujan Chinoy’s latest book exposes the fault lines in our current systems of global governance, and narrates India’s emergence as the world’s pole star. From his vantage point as the Director General of India’s leading security and defence think tank, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, he sees the world increasingly in turmoil, driven by sharp ideological differences and growing polarization. Territorial aggression and military conflicts are on the rise, with security frameworks in Eurasia and West Asia undergoing unprecedented changes. The constructs of the Indo-Pacific, home to the bulk of the world’s population, and the main driver of the global economy, maritime transport and trade are rapidly changing. China with its growing economic and military clout, and its fast growing formidable navy is increasing its pressure to tip the balance of power in this region. The US would have to rely more on allies and partners to stay competitive and maintain their position.
It is now a complex and interdependent geostrategic environment that provides opportunities to exercise strategic autonomy, and also places limits to exercise that autonomy. Amb. Chinoy lists seven “Ts” that impact national security strategies in any geography: trade, technology, territorial disputes, terrorism, tenets, transparency, and trust. The first factor, “trade” is an integral part of the globalised world where we live, and near impossible to control. India’s “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” policy is an attempt to be free from overwhelming dependence on any single geography or source in relation to its critical supply chains.
We are well aware that the world’s most pressing challenges—such as climate action, combating cross-border and radical terrorism, and measures to prevent future pandemics—can only be addressed through global collaboration and universal participation. However, in recent times, the United Nations has struggled to tackle almost every challenge it has faced. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) effectiveness was undermined by pandemic-related politics, while the Bretton Woods institutions have failed to alleviate the financial distress in over seventy-five countries that were deeply affected by the debt crisis. The United Nations Security Council, hampered by its current structure and deep divisions, has been unable to pass binding resolutions on conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Gaza. Other trade-related bodies within the UN are faring no better.
The world order created after the end of the Second World War in 1945, led by a Western alliance led by the United States stands greatly weakened today. There are many current and upcoming leaders of global economy and state power finding themselves in the fringes of these institutions, with some of them resenting that the global order is still led by the US and its allies. The developed world, primarily in the global north, and the global south, which is home to over 80% of the world’s population, are currently a long way from finding a just and equitable common ground for addressing future trajectories of economic development, resource utilization, and digital transformation. India is not a country looking to deconstruct the existing global order, and is working to be seated at the high table of decision making bodies of global governance including the UNSC through genuine reforms.
India assumed the yearlong Presidency of the G20 in December of 2022. The country’s leadership role was driven by the underlying vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”. Amb. Chinoy was amongst those at the centerstage as the Chair of the Think20 engagement group. Throughout our Presidency, our civilizational values became a guide for the global community to shape a broad consensus on our planet’s future. Notably, the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) was established as part of the G20 declaration in New Delhi. We also highlighted our successful Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), which offers an affordable and effective solution to accelerate global digital transformation. India has previously been instrumental in initiating the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.
Advocating for a multipolar world, India sees the United States, China, the European Union, Japan, and Russia, as well as several others, as key poles. This approach allows us to explore avenues for strategic autonomy, with our positions firmly grounded in national interests. As a result, we have engaged in platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), as well as minilateral initiatives such as the Quad and I2U2. We are also participating in connectivity projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor and the International North-South Transport Corridor, often collaborating with partners who have differing and conflicting views in a deeply divided world. India’s stance has also enabled us to be a peace builder of some of the biggest ongoing global conflicts. With over four decades of experience as a career diplomat, Ambassador Chinoy has had a front-row seat as India navigated these often contradictory and difficult to navigate landscapes.
Territorial disputes between India and China, the rising US-China friction over Taiwan and issues regarding the South China Sea have strengthened India-US cooperation. This has also led to greater collaborations in areas of critical and emerging technologies including 5G, 6G, AI and Open RAN, and agreements in logistics and defence. Other “Ts” are all major factors in our strategic calculus. For instance, cross border terrorism, and resultant erosion of trust have impacted our relationship with our neighbouring countries in the northern and western front. Amb. Chinoy, who is a specialist on China, East Asia, and politico-military and security issues delves into the emerging trends in revolution of military affairs (RMA) in the age of network-centric warfare including in the cyber and space realms.
Building adequate deterrent capabilities, and being a “Surakshit Bharat”, that is an India that is militarily resilient would be essential for its secure and peaceful co-existence in this neighbourhood, and continue its development trajectory. This book is a conscientious documentation of the unfolding geostrategic events, and the probable choices and steps India would make to reach Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, and our stated goal of being a fully developed “Vikasit Bharat” by mid-century.
Anil K. Antony is a National Secretary and National Spokesperson of the Bharatiya Janata Party; X@anilkantony.