The Chinese Communist Party is far too strong to be overthrown; its surveillance state and vise-like grip on the Chinese people have ensured its longevity, which is of course its ultimate objective.
There is not much reason to believe that anything fundamental will change for the foreseeable future in China’s relationship with America or indeed the world. Don’t be fooled by China’s current temporary economic and political malaise. The government’s policies are deliberate, comprehensive, uncompromising, and becoming even more severe. Given the Chinese government’s readoption of Maoist era policies during Xi’s tenure and particularly intrusive surveillance tactics (made “normalized” by the Covid-19 pandemic) at home, it would be both uncharacteristic and unrealistic for the government to pursue a Xi Jinping Thought “light” set of economic, foreign, or military policies abroad, particularly at this juncture.
Say what you will about how China got to where it is in such a relatively short period of time, given that it was largely an agriculture-based nation in the Flintstone era a generation ago. It is now a force to be reckoned with whose trajectory will propel it to even greater heights in this decade and those to come. If America and the leading nations of the world intend to become worthy competitors to China, they had better set aside their differences and combine their resources in research and development, AI, technology, and weaponry. That is the only hope they have of matching, much less surpassing, the long-term path China is on.
When the Chinese government says it is going to do something—it does. It executes on its proclamations extremely well. The American government cannot say the same, for its lawmakers are too busy competing with and fighting among themselves to get much of anything meaningful done. Meanwhile, China’s government proceeds, quietly, doing what it has done well for decades and making significant progress in spreading its soft power around the world as America struggles to convince its allies that their partnership will stand the test of time.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is far too strong to be overthrown; its surveillance state and vise-like grip on the Chinese people have ensured its longevity, which is of course its ultimate objective. Commentators who predict its eventual collapse, or the implosion of the Chinese economy based on its inherent contradictions, are likely to be disappointed. That said, many of the inherent contradictions in its development model are apparent, such as the implosion of the real estate sector, hyper youth unemployment, low consumer spending, and dropping export levels. Ongoing purges of senior politicians and from within the ranks of the military are as much a display of Xi’s paranoia as they are of evident internal weakness.
Some argue this is the beginning of the end for the CCP, but that seems highly unlikely. The Chinese government has always managed to steady the ship in the past, although the centrifugal forces tugging at its seams are prominent at this juncture. Given the CCP’s grip on Chinese society, the many tools in the government’s toolkit, and the fear that permeates the Chinese population, it is likelier that this, too, shall pass, rather than mark the demise of modern China. The CCP is not going anywhere. As it learns from its mistakes, it will persist—at home and abroad—regardless of its challenges.
Let us not forget, also, the many challenges America and the West are facing. The Chinese government often points to many of the inherent contradictions in America and its own significant challenges, which must be addressed while simultaneously focusing on its Chinese adversary. How will the resources be found on a sustained basis to maintain the momentum against China in an era of strained financial resources and bitter political infighting in the US Congress?
Throughout the past three decades, as China has used the international system the liberal Western democracies created to its own advantage to develop, it has mastered the game and is in the process of modifying international institutions to suit its purposes—while under the supposedly watchful eye of the governance protocols created to prevent the system from being usurped. By being asleep at the wheel, America and the West have not only been complicit in making China’s rise possible, but in enabling the CCP to commandeer the system they created.
While China’s continued rise is impossible to stop, America and the West can and must do so much more to remain relevant and become China’s worthy competitor. America and the West need to get a lot smarter about how they catalyze resources and compete with China, which will be no small feat. China is fixated on the long-term future while America and the West largely remain prisoners of the past. Trump’s presidency diverted America’s focus away from the environment and becoming technologically savvy and toward a preoccupation with race, inequality, and divisiveness. His re-election would be a huge gift for the CCP, which benefitted greatly from the disintegration of America’s post-War alliances while he was President.
The truest test of whether America and the West can effectively compete with China will be seen not only in the endurance of their relationships but to the extent which these countries can remain in the lead in those areas of technology that have not already been surpassed by China. So much more needs to be done to bring the power of the private and public sectors together in the West, as has been done so effectively in China.
Equally importantly, the governments and people of America and the West must acknowledge that they will eventually be surpassed in many areas of critical importance if they fail to acknowledge China’s tremendous capabilities and commit to do what needs to be done to effectively compete. The Chinese government knows that it must pivot in order to stay ahead of the curve, it knows well how to do so, and it will continue to do so. The world’s leading nations must continually pivot—as much in unison as is possible—in response to the Chinese government’s future actions. Their failure to do so can only result in a permanently omnipotent China.
Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions and a widely published author on current affairs. In 2023 he was Adaptation Finance Lead at COP28. His just released new book is “The China Epiphany”.