The upcoming One Planet-Polar Summit in Paris this November promises greater prominence for nations undertaking Polar research.
The Ocean Ring of Yoga, held in over 34 nations in June 2023, included India’s research stations in the Polar regions. The stations, emissaries of the nation’s cultural heritage, helped pivot the attention of Polar research communities in traditional wellness. Around the same time (May 2023), for the first time in the history of a young ministry, turning 17 this July, was the allocation of a sole cabinet ministerial berth. Kiren Rijiju, appointed as the Cabinet Minister of Earth Sciences, MoES, took charge of what began as the Department of Ocean Sciences in 1981. A quick succession of events, the new minister’s visit to India’s Svalbard Research Station, Himadri, in June, India’s first Greenland EGRIP field camp and collection of ice core in July and a new research team heading to the Canadian Arctic shared research station, CHARS, in August, among others, marks commitment towards scientific research in the Arctic. However, with an annual expenditure of Rs 10-odd crores earmarked for Arctic research, Indian investments need a revisit. Two fundamental questions thus emerge: Is Arctic scientific research relevant for tropical India, and is the Arctic only about science?
A step back brings us to India’s Arctic Policy, released in March 2022, with promises of engaging with 14 odd ministries and departments with nodal commitment resting with the MoES. However, a year and a half later, Arctic and Polar endeavours beyond science remain as distant as it was aeons ago. The policy talks about an effective mechanism through an inter-ministerial Empowered Arctic Policy Group, the proceedings of which, if any, remain ambiguous.
Polar scientific research is, as well-understood, a valuable point of entry. In the 1980s, a not-quite-affluent-yet India took its adventure-loving scientists to the icy Antarctic, not for science, but to open a diplomatic opportunity, to shine amongst great nations, building knowledge shoulder to shoulder.
The Arctic is a lot more complex, with sovereign rights of the region extending over eight nations—USA, Russia, Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark (Greenland) and Iceland; with UK and Germany girdling as imperial expedition and academic outliers and China’s “near-Arctic” aspirations propelling a string of investments. The relevance of the Arctic lies in the vastness of what lies ahead, the “cold rush”, ironically, in the wake of climate change. China’s devastating floods, India’s unhinged monsoons, and even South America’s heat waves draw from the climatic and oceanic anomalies in the Arctic. Every nation remains connected to the global climate systems, warranting scientific evaluation.
India, however, holds a few cards, allowing it to join the Arctic climate club reasonably unimpeded. Dominion India was a signatory of the Svalbard Treaty in 1920, which allocated the no-man’s Spitsbergen Archipelago into Norway’s sovereign purview. Once the archipelago was turned into a haven for scientific research from the 1960s onwards, India and other nations such as China, also signatories, became eligible to participate. As India already ran robust Antarctic programmes, proven capabilities bolstered the nation’s advent into Arctic science in 2008. Most importantly, the environmental crisis, aided by Arctic countries’ all-hands-on-the-deck approach, ensured India’s smooth entry into the Arctic Council as an observer in 2013. From a diplomatic vantage point, science has secured a position for India, bringing us to the next question: Is the Arctic only about science?
Interestingly, the Indian oil and gas subsidiary, ONGC Videsh, seven years before the commencement of India’s Arctic programme, had in 2001 an alliance with Rosenoft, the Russian-owned oil company, to partner in conducting geological surveys and exploration activities on the continental shelf of the Russian Federation, which included speculations for the Arctic and sub-Arctic region, beginning with a 20% stake at Sakhalin. After nearly a decade, ONGC Videsh’s 15% shareholding of Vankor oil fields in 2015 placed India firmly on the Arctic energy map. Although several private players buy Arctic crude, ranging from prominent oil magnates such as the Reliance Industries to companies such as Deepak Fertilisers, state-owned firms ONGC Videsh, Bharat Petroresources Ltd, Indian Oil Corp, and Oil India Ltd lead Arctic investments, limited primarily to Russia. Notwithstanding India’s crude oil imports from a single nation touching a whopping 42% in May 2023, India’s investments in Russia’s oil and gas sector bordered around 16 billion USD till the end of 2022. Just a third of this investment was for the Arctic exclusively, including the Far East and East Siberia, Vankor and Yamal. Even the June 2022 Rosneft’s report of an estimated 82 million tonnes of oil in the High-north Pechora Sea during its drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky region failed to excite Indian investments. The scramble to extract Arctic petroleum is not limited to Russia. The US (Alaska), in March 2023, approved the controversial Willow Project of CoconoPhillips, an 8 billion USD plan to yield about 600 million barrels of oil over 30 years from the fragile Arctic.
Placing this in context leads us to examine a 2022 Foreign Affairs Committee report by US Congressman McCaul, which sets China’s Arctic investments at over “90 billion USD above the Arctic Circle in infrastructure, assets, or other projects…largely in the energy and minerals sectors”. The report cites China’s 80% financing for Yamal’s LNG and stakes in many Russian oil and gas ventures, apart from its rising presence in Greenland, Iceland, Finland and Norway. Although China’s Belt and Road initiative saw an investment slow down by about 2 billion USD in early 2022, infrastructure projects are still ongoing.
Now and again, history offers nations an opportunity to poise themselves for greatness. India’s role in the Arctic prepares the ground for engaging in a never-before-seen scenario, rooting for its citizen’s affluence and global well-being. Arctic’s juxtaposition of resource rush and rapid warming four times over the global average can alter the lives and livelihood of indigenous people, open up new trade routes over land and sea, propel improvements in space-based fibre optic technologies and AI-driven mining, and so much more. A case in point may be the environmentally benign Norway pushing for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic (Barents and Norwegian Sea), offering a record-breaking 92 exploration blocks this year, up by 64 blocks from its previous year’s 28. Indian enterprises, despite deep-rooted Indo-Norway ties, do not feature in the list of operatorships awarded.
India’s move to strengthen the MoES through increasing budgetary outlays for ambitious projects such as the Deep Ocean Mission with a Rs 4,000 cr rollout over five years, the Ministry’s pivotal role in the G20 Blue Economy discussions and now a dedicated minister for earth sciences, heralds MoES’s rising relevance. With the onus of India’s Arctic Policy resting on MoES, it needs to drive all the pillars of the Policy (Pillar 3, Economic and Human Development; Pillar 4, Transport and Connectivity; and Pillar 6, National Capacity Building), which includes creating an environment that enhances India’s business interests in the Arctic and encourages risk-taking among entrepreneurs. The Ministry needs to move beyond hinging itself on science, expanding its polar institute NCPOR’s institutional framework, loosely fashioning it along the lines of the Norwegian Polar Institute. A scientific director joined by directors for industry, law, trade and management can help create an environment of enterprise in Polar affairs, encouraging India’s chambers of commerce, such as CII, FICCI and Assocham, to shed its reticence and propel an Arctic outlook.
Rijiju, hailing from a Himalayan realm ridden with climate strife, holding a decade-long experience with various critical ministerial portfolios and being allocated a pivotal cabinet rank for MoES, makes him the befitting benefactor of India’s Arctic engagement. Ministers and officials from Asian nations of Japan, Korea, China and Singapore, in addition to several high-ranking officers from Arctic nations, the UK, Germany and France, frequent global events such as the Arctic Circle held in Reykjavik every October, Arctic Economic Council meetings with large delegations spearheading the nations’ research and industrial needs. The upcoming One Planet-Polar Summit in Paris this November promises greater prominence for nations undertaking Polar research. The Indian Minister of Earth Sciences, leading an inter-ministerial high-level delegation from the 14 identified stakeholders in India’s Arctic Policy to such and more arenas, standing tall amongst many global players, can send ripples of interest among the Indian investors. Showcasing the Arctic with intent can help India redraw the parameters of its meagre investments in Arctic science and industry.
Dr Sulagna Chattopadhyay heads a Delhi-based think-tank on Polar affairs, SaGAA.