Party thinks it can take advantage of possible anti-incumbency in the three states where Congress won, by the time of LS polls.
New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party is hopeful that its electoral defeat in three states—Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan—will not have much impact in the coming Lok Sabha elections and it will, in fact, come as a gain since the anti-incumbency clock will start ticking against the Congress governments in these states by that time.
The party also believes that while there was “double anti-incumbency” as it had governments at both state and Central levels during the Assembly elections, it will reduce to single anti-incumbency at the Central level alone in the 2019 general elections.
BJP strategists feel that 15 years of rule in MP and Chhattisgarh are too long a period to survive and, therefore, defeat in these states was not surprising. “In any case, 15 years is a long period. We wish we could have got a fourth term and, therefore, the defeat has come as a setback. But at the same time, one also needs to think that no party in a democratic country like ours can rule forever. There has to be a change at some point of time,” said a source in BJP.
“Of course, we will review what went wrong and what needs to be done there. But it was a mandate not so much against the BJP, but for change, as people had got tired of the same set of people ruling the states for such a long period. Despite the defeat, the fact remains that Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh still enjoy considerable amount of popularity in their respective states, which will help us in 2019,” he added.
The BJP believes that the “anti-incumbency pressure”, which was building up in these two states has found an outlet and, therefore, the situation, has “eased”. “Now the voters will also judge the functioning of the Congress governments and compare them with the earlier BJP ones. Obviously, Congress governments are unlikely to do much in such a short period of three-four months. Since the pressure has eased, BJP may start getting the voters’ sympathy from now onwards, while there will be considerable amount of anti-incumbency at the state level,” another source said.
He, however, said the case of Rajasthan is different, where the party had just five years of anti-incumbency. “Ideally, we should have returned to power again there. But there was perhaps a strong dislike for Vasundhara Raje, which cost us dearly. The party wanted a change of leadership at the state level, but it ‘surrendered’ before the high-handed approach of Raje. The party should have acted tough against the state unit and brought new faces, which could have neutralised the anti-incumbency to a great extent,” he added.
Party leaders also feel that since the Lok Sabha elections are fought on different and larger issues of national interest, the party may get the support of voters in these states. “On the one hand, we have a strong face in Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while there is no such face in the Opposition camp. There is no clarity in the Opposition camp as to who would be the PM candidate. In such a scenario, the voting pattern in these states might be different in the 2019 general elections, which will work to our advantage,” the sources pointed out.
They also said that since the state level anti-incumbency pressure has “eased”, the party is in a better position to start afresh. “While we will highlight the achievements of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre and expose the Congress governments in the three states,” they said, adding “we will take lessons from our mistakes and make a foolproof strategy for 2019.”
The Supreme Court dismissing the petition for investigation into the Rafale deal has also come as a boon for the BJP, which now plans to tell the people how a “misinformation campaign” was unleashed against the party for electoral gains.
The party is confident of convincing the people that there existed no scam in the deal and it was all a figment of imagination of the Congress and other Opposition parties who are desperate to capture power by any means possible.