BJP’s sensitivity to Nitish hampers decision-making, as JDU’s popularity continues to decline steadily.
New Delhi: With the Bihar elections less than nine months away, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the state, which is in coalition with the Janta Dal United JDU, is ensuring that it gives no reason for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to get upset and consider a potential tie-up with his former ally-turned-foe, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
However, this ‘care’ or ‘over-sensitivity’ towards the 73-year-old Kumar, who announced in the 2020 polls that the 2025 elections would be his last, has resulted in state BJP leaders and ministers failing to assert themselves, even in areas where they are constitutionally mandated to act.
BJP leaders from Patna, who were in Delhi for political and social meetings over the past month, told The Sunday Guardian that they are working with their hands tied when it comes to decision-making on governance. Everything has to be first checked by Kumar and his small circle of bureaucrats and associates before it is cleared at the policy level.
As a result, multiple decisions, which the ministers insisted on keeping private to avoid blame, have been delayed for months. These are administrative orders that could be announced in routine cabinet meetings.
The untimely death of former BJP Deputy Chief Minister and Rajya Sabha member Sushil Kumar Modi, 72, in May last year has further complicated matters. Modi was the only BJP leader who shared a personal rapport with Kumar and could directly raise issues with him without offending him or being ignored. Currently, no top leader within the BJP has that kind of working relationship with Kumar.
A sitting BJP minister told The Sunday Guardian that between Kumar and his ministers is a loop of trusted associates and bureaucrats who must be convinced of the benefits and reasons behind any scheme or an appointment. In many cases, these proposals are shot down or held at the level of Kumar’s associates without the Chief Minister even knowing what his alliance partner has submitted or proposed.
This situation, according to a senior BJP functionary, has led to growing resentment among the cadre, party supporters, and those who expect benefits from the party, as they feel the BJP is unable to assist them due to the veto of the Chief Minister’s associates.
However, given Kumar’s ability to make swift political decisions that often contradict his earlier stances, earning him the nickname ‘U-turn Kumar’ for his seasonal flip-flops, BJP leaders are waiting for the Assembly elections and its outcome. They believe the results will finally create a situation where they can assert themselves without fear.
BJP leaders must also consider that Tejashwi Yadav, the de facto leader of the RJD, would not hesitate to join forces with Kumar, a stance he has shown interest in before.Despite being criticised for his inability to maintain a consistent ideology or alliance, Kumar has retained the support of his loyal voters. In the five elections JDU has contested, its average vote share has been 17%- modest but sufficient to maintain his role as a kingmaker in a state where, alongside the BJP, the RJD and Congress also wield significant influence.
The JDU, with Nitish Kumar as its most prominent figure, contested its first election in February 2005, in which it got 14.55% votes. This was followed by October 2005 elections, as the polls in February resulted in a hung Assembly, in which the JDU got 20.46% votes. In the 2010 elections, the party received 22.58%, but its share dropped to 16.38% in 2015 and further declined to 15.39% in the 2020 elections, indicating a steady decrease in Kumar’s popularity.