NEW DELHI: Maharashtra is set to head to the polls in the coming months, once the Election Commission announces the date. Both the Mahayuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, led by Congress, are gearing up for a fierce battle for power. However, both alliances face internal challenges that need to be addressed before the election. A major issue for both sides is agreeing on a satisfactory seat-sharing arrangement, as each party within the alliances is aiming to contest the majority of seats.
In the Mahayuti alliance, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena aims to contest 100 seats, BJP is targeting 150 seats, and NCP is requesting 80 seats. On the other hand, the opposition MVA also faces challenges: Congress is pushing to contest over 110 seats, having secured the most seats in the recent Lok Sabha election. Shiv Sena (UBT) is seeking a similar number of seats as Congress, but is willing to accept fewer if necessary. Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) is asking for 60 to 80 seats, positioning itself as the junior partner in the alliance. This creates a complex dynamic, and it will be interesting to see how these major partners in both alliances negotiate and finalise their seat-sharing arrangements for the Assembly elections.
Apart from seat sharing, one of the key issues on which parties will campaign in the upcoming election is Maratha reservation. The Maratha reservation issue is expected to be a pivotal factor in the Assembly elections, influencing voter behaviour, shaping party strategies, and potentially determining the overall election outcome. It could be decisive in determining which party or coalition forms the next government, with parties that effectively address this issue while maintaining broad appeal likely to gain a significant advantage.
Political analysts also highlight that anti-incumbency could play a crucial role in the upcoming election. The current government, formed by an alliance of splinter groups from parties like Shiv Sena and NCP, has not sent a positive message to voters. As a result, the ruling party may face significant setbacks in the majority of seats, as indicated by the recent Lok Sabha election results.
Another important challenge for the ruling alliance is whether the votes of NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) will transfer to the BJP and vice versa. Traditionally, the voter bases of both parties have been opposed to each other, making it interesting to see how the ruling coalition will navigate this issue.
Political analyst and senior journalist Venkatesh Keshri, who closely follows Maharashtra politics, said that the ruling party may use the Maratha reservation issue to mobilise voters. He noted that the Mahayuti alliance is likely to focus heavily on winning over Maratha voters but must be cautious not to alienate other communities, particularly the OBCs, who might see increased Maratha reservation as a threat to their own quotas. Keshri also mentioned that seat-sharing within the ruling front should be resolved easily, as BJP has already made it clear that it will play the “big brother” role in the alliance, contesting the majority of seats. Meanwhile, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) will play the “younger brother” roles, aiming to win as many seats as possible by providing a tough challenge to their counterparts in Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP).
Speaking about Raj Thackeray and the Maharashtra Navnirman
Sena (MNS), Keshri pointed out that although the MNS has announced plans to go solo and contest all seats independently, this move could cost MVA a few seats. MNS is perceived by some as aligned with the ruling front, which could benefit from their presence if they fall short of a majority.