BJP knows the danger Opposition unity poses. Modi is arguably in a much stronger position today than in early 2019.
NEW DELHI: The next general elections are a year from now and all eyes are on whether and how Opposition parties will be able to put up a united fight against the ruling BJP. The BJP has quite apparently benefited from divisions in the Opposition camp in a series of elections since 2014. It is very clear writing on the wall that unless the national Opposition unites against the BJP, it will lose the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, handing Prime Minister Narendra Modi a third successive term. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge is trying to contact Opposition leaders for a united front. Kharge has dialled three top Opposition leaders–Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, his Tamil Nadu counterpart M.K. Stalin and former Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray–in an attempt to build on the strong sense of unity between 19 Opposition parties during the recently concluded budget session of Parliament. Principal Opposition parties agree with the idea, but they don’t want the supremacy of Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi. But Gandhi loyalists insist and openly project Rahul Gandhi as the most eligible candidate for the post of future Prime Minister. They also expect a major share of seats for the next Lok Sabha election. Will the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee or Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav or RJD & JDU of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar accept such demand from the Congress?
If at present they agree to keep the window open for Prime Ministership, how do they agree on major issues like the Adani deals probe, Hindutva, RSS, J&K etc against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP; Congress aggressively attacked the BJP government on Adani deals and favouritism with corruption charges. On the contrary, Sharad Pawar, the chief of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and one of the country’s tallest politicians, has come out strongly in support of the Adani Group and has criticized the narrative around US short-seller Hindenburg’s report on the conglomerate. “Such statements were given by other individuals too earlier and there was a ruckus in Parliament for a few days, but this time out of proportion importance was given to the issue. The issues that were kept, who kept them, we had never heard of these people who gave the statement, what is the background? When they raise issues that cause a ruckus across the country, the cost is borne by the country’s economy, we cannot disregard these things. It seems this was targeted,” Pawar said in a recent interview. “An individual industrial group of the country was targeted, that is what it seems. If they have done anything wrong, there should be an inquiry.”
On the Congress’ single-minded demand for a JPC probe into the Hindenburg report, Pawar candidly said he did not share the views of Congress party leaders. After the demand was raised, he said, the Supreme Court set up a probe and appointed a committee with a retired Supreme Court judge, an expert, an administrator, and an economist. They were given guidelines and a timeframe and told to conduct an inquiry. Sharad Pawar also has good personal relations with RSS and BJP leaders. On the other hand, his opponents also remind Pawar of the long battle against Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi on the leadership issue.
Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi sharing poor personal chemistry. Their animus towards Modi may drive them to make a common cause in 2024, but how will Mamata Banerjee forget attack of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha? Both have a bitter rivalry in West Bengal. Other prime ministerial—or kingmaker—hopefuls like K. Chandrashekar Rao, Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal will be more concerned about safeguarding their regional fiefs than putting all their heads in the mahagathbandhan umbrella. Interestingly, a stronger Kejriwal in Delhi and Punjab and a dominant Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal will work in the BJP’s favour: Strong regional satraps rarely make good national Opposition electoral partners.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election will be won in the states. This is where the BJP could face headwinds. In the 2019 general election, the BJP made a clean sweep of Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan (25/25), Gujarat (26/26), Uttarakhand (5/5), Himachal Pradesh (4/4), Haryana (10/10), and Delhi (7/7). In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won 62 out of 80 seats, in Karnataka 25 out of 28 seats and in Madhya Pradesh 27 out of 29 seats. Maharashtra and Bihar could be crucial. In both, the BJP’s alliance partners–the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and JDU in Bihar–have walked away. In 2019, the BJP won 23 seats in Maharashtra and 17 seats in Bihar. The BJP-Shinde alliance government in Maharashtra has to weather both a pending Supreme Court verdict on its legitimacy and divisions in the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena vote. In Bihar, the JDU-RJD combine will pose a challenge to the BJP. The BJP knows the danger Opposition unity poses. Modi is arguably in a much stronger position today than in early 2019. The country’s infrastructure projects, digital thrust, post-Covid handling of the economy, and presidency of the G20 have given Modi a global pulpit. However, several challenging Assembly elections await him in 2023. Among them, five are key: Karnataka, Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The BJP looks vulnerable in Karnataka despite the attempt by the local Congress leadership of D.K. Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah to self-destruct. Against that though, is Chief Minister B.S. Bommai’s charmless leadership.
Turn now to the hard math. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 231 of its 303 seats in just 11 states: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Delhi. The Opposition sees opportunities in 2024 in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka and Delhi. But in a Lok Sabha election, it’s Modi versus the rest. And Modi has two arrows in his quiver. The first is India’s year-long G20 presidency which will cement his stature as a global statesman. As soon as India hands over the G20’s presidency to Brazil on 1 December 2023, the second arrow in Modi’s quiver will be pulled out and aimed squarely in the direction of Ayodhya. The Ram Mandir will open to devotees in December 2023. The official inauguration is scheduled for January 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi always plans for at least 10 years and Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath are already working to project Modi as the saviour of Hindutva with welfare schemes for every citizen of India which includes Muslim minorities. Recently, not only BJP leaders, but senior leaders of the Rashtriya Swaym Sangh publicly showed a very soft approach to the poor section of the Muslim community. Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagawat reminds all that every person born in India is Hindu even if they have a different approach to prayer and faith in God. Their campaign helped to get support in North East states, the southern part of India, and sections of the Christian and Muslim communities. In this scenario, dreaming of overthrowing the BJP will not be easy to make a reality.
The author is Editorial Director of ITV Network-India News and Aaj Samaj Dainik.