New Delhi: In the context of the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) appears to be losing ground compared to its rivals, the Janata Dal United (JDU) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This gradual decline in the RJD’s presence and voter support is directly benefiting its opposition ahead of the elections scheduled for May-June 2025.
The challenges facing the RJD were evident in the recently concluded bypolls for four seats, where the party failed to retain its own constituencies. In some cases, the RJD even slipped from the second position, highlighting its diminishing influence. This trend suggests that the RJD is struggling to maintain its foothold as the elections approach.
Another crucial factor influencing the political landscape in Bihar is the popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar among women voters. Women play a significant role in Bihar’s politics, and the JDU-led NDA government is actively working to secure their support.
Nitish Kumar has previously introduced several initiatives benefiting women, such as the liquor ban, the cycle scheme for schoolgirls, and women’s reservation, all of which have strengthened his appeal among female voters. Additionally, Nitish Kumar is set to launch the Mahila Samvad Yatra this month to engage with women from all social backgrounds, listen to their concerns, and assure them of solutions.
According to a JDU source quoted by The Sunday Guardian, Nitish Kumar is likely to introduce new schemes aimed at women in the coming months.
Furthermore, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party poses another challenge for the RJD. The Jan Suraaj Party has built a significant voter base in the Seemanchal region, traditionally an RJD stronghold.
The RJD has been gradually losing its support there, while the Jan Suraaj Party has managed to attract votes, particularly from the Muslim-Yadav (MY) community, once a core voting bloc for the RJD. This shift was evident in the recent bypolls, where the Jan Suraaj Party secured a notable vote share, affecting the overall election outcome. As its influence grows, the Jan Suraaj Party may become a decisive factor, potentially undermining RJD’s prospects in the upcoming assembly elections.
Young and first-time voters are expected to play a significant role in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, and current trends suggest they are leaning towards the JDU. One key factor influencing this is the cycle distribution scheme for girls, which has proven to be a strategic success. Many beneficiaries of the scheme, who received cycles a few years ago, are now eligible to vote and are more likely to support the JDU.
Additionally, young voters view Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a strong leader, which boosts the appeal of the JDU due to its alliance with the NDA. According to a senior JDU insider, internal surveys predict that if Bihar assembly elections were held today, the JDU would emerge as the single-largest party, with the BJP closely following. This reflects the NDA’s strong position and effective governance. In contrast, the RJD is expected to decline significantly, securing only 30 to 40 seats due to diminishing voter support and organizational challenges.
Smaller NDA allies, such as the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), are also forecast to perform well, strengthening the NDA coalition. Overall, the survey indicates a political shift in Bihar, with the NDA likely to dominate while the RJD struggles to regain ground.
Political analysts closely monitoring Bihar politics have told The Sunday Guardian that the upcoming Bihar assembly elections are set to be highly intriguing. The JDU is currently at the peak of its popularity and is likely to emerge as the largest party in the state.
Meanwhile, the RJD faces the challenge of reinventing itself to remain competitive and prove its relevance.
Experts suggest that the RJD needs to break free from the shadow of the Congress and make bold strategic decisions before the elections. Given that Congress has lost its voter base in Bihar, its declining influence could negatively impact the RJD’s prospects.
This trend was also evident in recent elections, where alliances with Congress have weakened the performance of regional parties. Analysts draw parallels with Maharashtra, where the Shiv Sena (led by Uddhav Thackeray) and the NCP (led by Sharad Pawar) have experienced significant political setbacks due to their association with Congress.