Uttarakhand poll results may spring a surprise

New Delhi: After voting, the leaders in Uttarakhand are now waiting for 10 March when the poll results will be announced. While indications do not augur well for the BJP, there is a perceptible unease in the Congress as well, though both the parties claim to be crossing majority mark to form the government.
It is believed that the assembly poll results may surprise both the parties. Political pundits have been unable to gauge the mood of the voters.
Observers believe that the BJP’s fate depends on how much the rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath could make an impact on voters. This type of uncertainty and confusion was seen during the 2021 elections in Uttarakhand, when analysts could not gauge the mood of voters and both the major parties had stopped short of getting a majority mark. Somehow Congress managed to form the government which could last a full term with difficulty. However, the party had to change its CMs twice. Later, the Congress suffered a major split.
Similarly, the BJP under the leadership of the then CM BC Khandhuri appeared to be in a strong position in 2012. But Khnanduri himself lost the poll, and BJP ended up getting 32 seats, which was just one seat short of Congress’ tally of 33. After this, Congress formed a government with the support of BSP and some independents.
But at that time, the Congress was in power at the centre. The situation is different this time round, with the BJP having a strong central leadership that can easily help its state unit to form the government even if it falls short of the majority mark by a couple of seats. On the contrary, the Congress has the weakest ever central leadership. That is the reason why the Congress state unit is a bit nervous and restless. However, the Congress claims that it is going to get 44-45 seats. Congress got weakened due to massive infighting during campaign and ticket distribution. Congress may find it difficult to form the government if it stops short of a majority mark by 7-8 seats.
But Harish Rawat is trying to give out the impression that he is going to be CM. He is said to be doing so to keep the rivals under pressure. If Congress bags 45 seats as it is claiming then there will be massive tussle for the top post. At the same time, the BJP is also facing increased infighting, which is also one of the reasons why Congress is hopeful of a victory. In fact, even before the results are out, Laksar MLA Sanjay Gupta has started blaming BJP state president Madan Kaushik for “defeat”. The leadership has somehow managed to handle the situation. Like Congress, there were reports about BJP leaders being involved in sabotage.
Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami is said to be confident of positive results. He has also claimed to be getting more than 45 seats.
Women are said to have voted for BJP. Some of the voters may have gone for BJP thinking that defeat of the party in power may result in halt of ongoing development works like Char Dham all weather road and rail projects.
Observers feel that Kotdwar, Lansdowne, Paudi and Srinagar, where Congress was comfortable once, are now locked in a keen contest after voting. Definitely, the BJP cashed in on Congress’ weakness and got back in the fight.