After the Delhi debacle, there have been many questions regarding the future of both the Aam Aadmi Party and its boss, Arvind Kejriwal. There is intense speculation that the AAP may split further and its government in Punjab could be in some danger as well.
Although the damage control exercise has commenced, yet it is not known whether efforts put by Kejriwal and his colleagues in salvaging the situation may succeed. The Bharatiya Janata Party that has returned to power after nearly three decades is bent upon ending Kejriwal’s political innings and ironically, the Congress seems to be having a similar objective.
Many observers are likening the AAP to the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) which had a phenomenal rise when its leaders Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, Bhrigu Phukan, Biraj Kumar Sarma and Atul Bora, became household names in the 1980s, but the political outfit is nowhere today in terms of both influence and popularity. A similar fate could await the AAP, unless it is able to get out of the kind of mess it is in now.
Kejriwal is on the back foot and is obviously not making the correct moves. His intention of calling a meeting of AAP MLAs from Punjab was perhaps to reassert his leadership. However, the signal which went out unfortunately was that after losing power in the capital, he was wishing to run the Punjab government from New Delhi. It would have been better if the MLAs’ meeting was held in Chandigarh. It was bad optics of it being convened in Delhi.
The Punjab Assembly is to have a session next week and Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, who seemed both relieved and determined has already launched schemes or made declarations regarding the creation of jobs. He knows that he is skating on thin ice and the BJP would never allow any opportunity to go by in splitting the party in the state on the lines identical to Maharashtra where both the NCP and the Shiv Sena faced a division.
The saffron brigade is not popular enough to form its own dispensation in the border state, but it can certainly create conditions which could lead to either the Presidents’ Rule or lead to a breakaway faction heading the government. Therefore, it is for Kejriwal and his colleagues to ensure that this does not happen.
There is also speculation that the former Delhi Chief Minister may be slapped with multiple cases for the alleged irregularities committed during his tenure and may spend the remainder of his life contesting them in courts or making in and out trips to jails. Although this is an unfortunate scenario, but it is very much possible.
Kejriwal’s detractors also have provided a prescription for him to live a comfortable life and that entails his severing ties with the I.N.D.I.A bloc and instead aligning himself with the NDA, which appears to be a figment of imagination at this time. It is being said that if he were to join hands with the BJP, the cases against him may either get diluted or disappear.
Even in his wildest thoughts, Kejriwal may have never imagined that he would be in the kind of situation he faces now. Many of his associates are already in the BJP and indications are that Delhi Rajya Sabha MP, Swati Maliwal, who is cut up with him following her alleged assault in the erstwhile CM residence, may create obstacles in his path. Swati is already critical of the way the AAP has been functioning despite being a party MP and could play a role in the BJP’s scheme of things.
There are some Kejriwal well-wishers who feel that he should get one of the Punjab MPs to quit the Upper House and instead get elected to the Rajya Sabha, to prolong his political innings. This possibility seems to be remote since none of the Rajya Sabha MPs from the state may be willing to vacate their seats; many of them are said to have contributed to the party fund to get a berth and unless the amount gets returned, they may not budge.
There was also this talk of Kejriwal himself going to Punjab as the CM in place of Mann, something which is ridiculous. In 2017, during the Punjab Assembly polls, Kejriwal had such a plan and it had been decided that while he shall shift to Punjab, his deputy CM, Manish Sisodia may get elevated in Delhi. Captain Amarinder Singh, who was leading the Congress campaign at that point, took multiple digs at the AAP leader and wondered how a “Bania” having his roots in Haryana could be the CM of Punjab.
There were political pundits in Punjab who believed that if the AAP had projected Navjot Singh Sidhu, a Jat Sikh, with whom they were having negotiations, as the CM, the party would have come to power in 2017 itself. It was a case of missed opportunities both for AAP and for Sidhu, and the Captain returned, wresting power from the Akali-BJP combine.
Kejriwal’s ambitions of being a prominent figure in national politics for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls also stand shattered for the time being. It is most unlikely that he could emerge as the primary face of the non-BJP opposition for the Parliamentary polls to challenge the might of the saffron brigade. While it is never possible to write off any politician, Kejriwal, for now, seems to have reached a cul de sac. Between us.