Despite its historical connections, India’s engagements with the 5 Republics remain inadequate.
Central Asia, once considered the centre of the world, has over the centuries witnessed a noticeable rise and fall in its global standing. Around 53 BC, the Parthian army from Central Asia defeated the Roman general Crassus, seizing control of the Levant. History vividly records the ascendancy of its prosperity and influence for 300 to 400 years around 1000 AD, following the Arab conquest. In fact, the period beginning 750 AD is termed its Age of Enlightenment, coinciding with forces based in Central Asia overwhelming the Arabs and their Umayyad Caliphate in Damascus, and establishing a new capital at Baghdad. The subsequent installation in 819 AD of a caliph whose power base in Central Asia mirrored a reconquest of the Islamic world from the East, had ignited a surge of cultural vitality.
For centuries thereafter, the region witnessed a flourishing of cultural progress in both secular and religious realms. Central Asia emerged as a vibrant intellectual epicenter, possibly surpassing Europe, the Middle East, India, and China in the diversity and richness of its ideas. Many Central Asian thinkers and scholars were multi-disciplinarians, adept in fields such as geography, mathematics, astronomy, and comparative religion, acting as a link between antiquity and the modern world. Their role peaked in the era of Abu Ali al-Husayn Ibn Sina, or Ibn Sina (980-1037), and Abu Rayhan al-Biruni, known simply as Biruni (973-1048). Using rigorous logic and supported by unquestionable evidence, they boldly challenged the authority and theories of Aristotle, the great philosopher, while also undermining the “incoherence of the philosophers.” Little wonder that in such a golden era of scientific exploration and the cross-fertilisation of ideas, the process of Islamization in Central Asia progressed at a gradual pace. The Mongol invasion led by Genghis Khan in 1219 is commonly accepted as the endpoint of this remarkable era of creativity and intellectual effervescence.
In terms of geography, to those who look at the region through a historic lens, Central Asia often appears as a nebulous “Islamic East,” stretching from eastern Iran and fading into obscurity further east or south. Scholars within this framework describe Central Asia as comprising “a network of cities and their hinterlands,” overlooking a broader identity that might distinguish these settlements from the more developed regions to the west. In more recent times, particularly during the three and a half generations of Soviet rule, the region has been perceived as Middle (Srednaia) Asia, including only Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—the five former Soviet republics that gained independence in 1990-91. However, over the past two millennia, most observers have acknowledged the existence of a much larger cultural sphere, often referred to as the heart of Asia, which includes not only the new states of Central Asia but also additional territories. Afghanistan, along with its adjacent region now part of northern Pakistan, was considered a significant component. The Xinjiang province, which remained predominantly Turkic and Muslim until the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, and the ancient region of Khurasan, now reduced to a desolate province in northwest Iran, were also integral parts of this expansive cultural sphere.
In spite of differences in language, ethnicity, nationality, and geography, the inhabitants of all these areas in Central Asia belonged to a single, albeit highly pluralistic, cultural zone. Their vast diversity in landscapes included the grassy steppes in the north, a central belt of deserts interspersed with irrigated oases stretching almost to Afghanistan, and the towering Himalayan chains embracing the Pamirs and the Karakoram. Most of its landmass remains uninhabitable, and its three main rivers—Syr Darya, Amu Darya, and Helmand—although historically used for transportation, did not provide a direct water route to the outside world. The region’s open terrain and the strategic placement of mountain chains made it vulnerable to external invasions, something which has been occurring for centuries. While the irrigated zones served as centres of intellectual activity, the constant economic and social interaction between the desert and steppe regions was a hallmark of the blossoming of its cultural renaissance. Today, the discussions of India’s relations with Central Asia focus narrowly on the truncated region comprising the five former Soviet Republics.
INDIA ON THE MARGIN
In 2012, India enunciated its Connect Central Asia policy as an endeavour to catch up with major players who had steadily expanded their influence in the region since its nations were in their infancy. Despite India being among the earliest countries to recognize each of the five Republics upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and their subsequent emergence as independent national entities, current levels of economic and geopolitical engagement remain relatively low. Nonetheless, there persists a mutual respect between Indian leadership and their counterparts in Central Asia. The historical Silk Route of the medieval period, which facilitated significant bilateral trade and extensive intercultural exchange, including the spread of Buddhism across their territories to Europe, continues to bind them closely. Central Asia’s moderate pro-Islamic stance, high level of autonomy bordering on neutrality in most international affairs, and acknowledgment of India as an emerging regional and economic power of the 21st century could serve as the foundation for fostering greater mutual cooperation and alignment.
Like India, the Central Asian Republics have adroitly managed the competing interests of superpowers and other regional players while engaging in areas of their comparative advantage. This includes leveraging their diverse energy and mineral resources, as well as their sizable market and demographic potential, akin to India. Their response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to all five nations in one longish trip in 2015, has thus far been positive. However, such efforts require diligent follow-up, considering the ethnic and linguistic commonalities with the formidable Russia and China, both of which also share a long common land border with most of the Central Asian countries.
The physical proximity of Pakistan, Turkey, and several European nations to the landlocked Central Asian Republics provides them with a distinct edge over India. The region’s relatively poor transportation network, both in terms of roads and railways, has remained a bottleneck for facilitating greater internal and external trade, including with India. While China has gained an advantage over other aspirants by investing in a network of pipelines and associated infrastructure, India faces a significant disadvantage due to poor connectivity. Its envisaged linkages through Iran, Afghanistan, or Pakistan are heavily dependent on the region’s geopolitics, as well as its bilateral ties with these countries.
While each of the five Republics faces individual challenges regarding security and development, they also share a few common concerns. These include inadequate transportation infrastructure, political instability, terrorism threats, competition for water resources, and border delineation issues. These challenges have hindered their ability to fully exploit their abundant energy and mineral reserves, as well as to construct pipelines for transporting oil and gas to global markets where sale-realizations are typically higher than in domestic or neighbouring markets. Despite their sizeable geographical expanse, the total population of these nations is relatively small, totaling under 55 million people, and is thinly distributed across the region.
The availability of arable land is limited in Central Asia, with much of it surrounded by deserts and mountains. Despite this, agriculture remains the primary livelihood in most countries, although its contribution to national GDPs is relatively low. Affordability for purchasing goods and services is largely restricted to essentials. Additionally, while these nations generally support free trade and recognize the value of multilateral and regional security and economic institutions, they continue to be governed by outdated regulations. The heavy hand of the State remains visible in many areas of governance, particularly the management of economies, foreign exchange, and FDI.
What might help India in its quest for bettering ties with the Central Asian nations is the similarity in all such challenges, and the shared experiments being made to overcome them. Perhaps recognizing this, Prime Minister Modi had remarked at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in October 2016, following India’s admission, that “Indian partnership with them will protect our societies from the threats of radical ideologies of hate, violence, and terror.” He had also emphasised that “India would significantly benefit from the groupings’ strength in energy and natural resources, and in turn, India’s strong economy and vast market could drive economic growth in the SCO region.” It is imperative for India to devise a novel approach toward realising such common interests to build its ties with the strategically located region.
Otherwise, the better-connected and placed Chinese, Russians, Turkey, and even Pakistan, along with distant EU nations, would continue to strengthen their ties with the Central Asian region. Currently, cheaper Chinese manufactured goods and higher-priced Western products dominate local markets. Only locally packaged Indian tea and pharmaceuticals by Indian businesses have managed to compete against such imports. India’s trade with the region comprises just about 1% of its total, and Indian investments, both public and private, remain limited. Such constrained bilateral economic engagements have impacted India’s geopolitical ties, as well as the possible collaborations in security matters with nations in the region.
Dr Ajay Dua, a development economist, is a former Union Secretary, Commerce & Industry. Country-specific strategy and areas of possible cooperation with the five Central Asian Republics will follow.