The challenges that it faces even now despite the wonderful (in relative terms) performance of 2024 remain very formidable.
Euphoria is but natural when you virtually double your seat tally in a critical national election where your future survival as a national force is at stake. By upping its tally from 52 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 99 in 2024, the Congress has indeed delivered an incredible impressive performance. It deserves the kudos and the congratulations coming its way. For the umpteenth time, Rahul Gandhi is back in popular imagination (at least among opponents and critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi) as prime ministerial material. Many analysts are gushing about how the areas through which his Bharat Jodo and Nyay Yatra passed have delivered Congress victories. Some fans point out how the return of the old family bastion Amethi to the Congress kitty is symbolic of the resurgence of the dynasty charisma. Some others have pointed out how the emergence of the party as the one with the largest number of Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra symbolises the return of the grand old Congress. Many are already keenly awaiting a massive Congress victory in the Haryana Assembly elections that are due in just a few months. All in all, the perception seems to be the Congress under the “spunky” Rahul Gandhi has got its mojo back with a vengeance.
The authors too applaud the revival of the Congress in the 2024 elections. In our opinion, the best way to sustain a healthy democracy in India is to have two powerful parties slug it out at the national level. It keeps the ruling party on its toes and checks and balances are maintained. Yet, at the risk of being labelled as party poopers or even that colourful term “Godi Columnists”, we must point out that this unexpected revival and resurgence has every chance of turning out to be a false dawn. We don’t have to go too far back in history to understand the structural challenges that the Congress still faces. What happened in 2009? The Lok Sabha tally of the Congress rose from 145 in 2004 to a “fabulous” 206 in 2009. Back then, many analysts wrote that the BJP is finished as a viable opposition party for at least a generation. Many more wrote how it was a matter of time before the family appointed Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh handed over the reins to the youthful prince Rahul Gandhi. For the army of Congress ecosystem acolytes, Rahul Gandhi was all set and ready to be the fourth member of the Nehru Gandhi dynasty to become the Prime Minister of India.
And then 2014 happened when the Congress crashed to a mere 44 seats. Unless the top leadership undertakes structural changes on an urgent basis and makes a determined effort to revive the organisational and cadre base in about a dozen states, 2024 could well turn out to be another false dawn for India’s oldest political party. The challenges that it faces even now despite the wonderful (in relative terms) performance of 2024 remain very formidable.
The authors would like to highlight two data points to demonstrate the enormity of the challenge faced by the Congress. For manifold reasons (not a subject of this column), the Indian voter seems to have both punished and given a wake up and smell the coffee call to the Narendra Modi-led BJP. The national vote share of the BJP has actually declined by 0.8% to 36.56% as per the data made available by the Election Commission of India. In contrast, the national vote share of the Congress has gone up by 1.7% to 21.19% in these elections. But then, look at the gap. Despite a kick on its legs by the electorate, the BJP still leads the Congress in terms of vote share by a massive 15.37%. Till the Congress reduces that gap to single digits, the BJP will keep winning at least double the seats that the Congress wins. Now look at the actual number of votes. In these elections, the Congress has won 136.75 million votes. That’s a remarkable improvement over 2019 when it won 119.49 million votes. Good enough reason to be chuffed. But then if you look at the BJP numbers, the smiles should disappear from any person who is not living in denial and delusion. In these elections, the BJP has won 236 million votes, up from 229 million in 2019. The gap between the BJP and the Congress is almost 100 million or 10 crore votes. Till that gap is reduced significantly, there is simply no way for the Congress to outperform the BJP in terms of seats won in Lok Sabha elections.
The good news for the Congress is that the task is not impossible, even though it is very formidable. After all, the BJP did climb up from single digit vote shares in the 1980s to where it is today. Besides, its performance in these elections in Haryana shows that a successful revival of fortunes is a doable task. For instance, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won a resounding 58% of the vote share while the Congress slumped to a pathetic 28.42%. In a stunning turnaround in 2024, the Congress vote share zoomed up to 43.67% while that of the BJP slumped to 46.1%. In fact, if you add the vote share of alliance partner AAP, the I.N.D.I Alliance vote share at 47.61% is higher than that of the BJP. That is why the Congress has gone from zero out of ten in 2019 to five Lok Sabha seats in 2024.
Compare this with a much larger state Madhya Pradesh that sends 29 members to the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP managed a 58% vote share and won 28 out of 29 seats while the Congress managed a 33% vote share and won just one seat. In 2024, it was even worse for the Congress. Its vote share dipped by 2% and it lost even the sole seat it has won in 2019—the Kamal Nath citadel of Chhindwara.
On its own, the Congress is still a fighting force in Himachal, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Chhatisgarh and Telangana. In states like Maharashtra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where it has done very well, it is dependent on allies. Nearly half the seats won by the Congress this time are thanks to support and vote transfer from allies. The seats where it is strong on its own send 107 MPs to Lok Sabha. There are no signs of any revival in other major states.
As far as the authors understand, the data points towards a false dawn. Unless grassroots organisation and cadre are revived in states like UP, West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Andhra and Madhya Pradesh with a combined seat tally of 237.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.