Apart from raging global conflicts, multiplying and proliferating, there is the developing crisis of debt incurred by poor countries, the threat of climate catastrophe.
Would America let down the world in 2024? Looking at the disorder and chaos of 2023, it seems more than ever that American global leadership is indispensable. Nonetheless, every year commentators and pundits utter the same shibboleths that the post-World War II global system which the United States built and sustained with its economic, military, and soft power, is now breaking up amidst regional challenges, chaos, disorder, and strife; and not least the rise of China, its global ambitions, and its alliance with an aggressive and authoritarian Russia under Vladimir Putin.
Apart from raging global conflicts, multiplying and proliferating, there is the developing crisis of debt incurred by poor countries, the threat of climate catastrophe, the crisis in the Middle East, and the Ukraine-Russia lose-lose war stalemate. And then there’s the danger that Donald Trump might return to the White House, which would create havoc not only in the United States but also rattle the world. Many countries, especially in the Global South are questioning whether Western values and rules of engagement have any relevance especially when the world faces tremendous challenges of poverty, unending conflicts, pandemics, and climate disaster. The poor state of global governance, especially in Latin America and Africa, is leading to massive immigration crises not only in America’s southern border but also in Europe leading to rightwing populism in many countries.
Despite the decline of its economy and demographic challenges, China remains a most formidable political and economic power. Its role in global affairs in shaping economic, technological, and geopolitical issues must not be underestimated. The recent Taiwan elections that affirmed the Taiwanese people’s determination to be free and maintain the political status quo have not pleased China’s leaders. Nor have China’s overarching ambitions for establishing its dominance in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region been diminished anyway due to its economic slowdown.
Then there’s the Middle East sitting on a powder keg. The shock and awe of the horrendous attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023 on Israel, which resulted in the vicious killing and taking hostages of hundreds of people including women and children, led to the Israeli ferocious retaliation with bombardments and the invasion of Gaza, which brutalized the Palestinian people. The initial overwhelming sympathy for the Israeli victims that the horrific Hamas attack had aroused globally began to dissipate because of the daily media showcasing of the suffering of the people of Gaza. While the Israeli hostages are still suffering in captivity in Gaza under the control of Hamas, the war has killed more than 25,000 Palestinians including children and women and the elderly in Gaza. The conflict has spread to Lebanon, the West Bank, Syria, Iraq, and most notably Yemen where the Houthi rebels supported by Iran have been blocking the Red Sea-Suez Canal vital artery for global trade. The Iranian missile attack at Pakistan’s Balochistan region and Pakistan’s tit-for-tat retaliation against Iran, for war against terrorists’ hideouts in each other’s country, forebodes ill and creates apprehensions that the conflict might get wider and more dangerous.
Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its third year and the fear of a long-drawn-out conflict continues in the minds of policymakers in Europe, the United States, and other major countries around the world. While Europe and NATO are doing their best to prop up and support Ukraine’s war efforts, in the United States political parties are squabbling about how much to fund and how long to fund Ukraine in its fight against Russia. There’s a growing section of people in the United States and elsewhere who believe that a partitioned Ukraine along the existing lines of actual control may be a feasible solution for ending the conflict, and maybe a lesser evil. With the prospects of Trump returning to power, the question has become very crucial especially because Trump has shown the inclination towards favouring Putin’s Russia. He also thinks that Europe should take care of itself, and questions the relevance of NATO, and believes that Ukraine is Europe’s problem.
Amidst the mounting geopolitical challenges, there is the rise of Generative Artificial Intelligence. The rapidly evolving and complex landscape of Artificial General Intelligence presents both transformative opportunities and significant challenges. AI serves as a powerful tool for enhancing productivity, disseminating information, and aiding decision-making, while simultaneously posing a potential threat as a conduit for misinformation and disinformation, particularly in sensitive areas such as the forthcoming US presidential elections. The pressing issues include responsibly harnessing the power of AI, understanding the implications of ongoing technological trends for politics, and safeguarding democratic integrity in a digital information-driven era. The expanding capabilities of AI, efforts to regulate the technology wisely, and the dangers that unregulated AI could pose to the integrity of information and democratic processes are all critical challenges.
Despite the global gloom and doom and the threat of political chaos that Trump’s legal battles, most notably the 6 January insurrection case might create, the US economy has been booming. As the Economist wrote recently, “From an array of hard data, there is reason to think that people ought to be quite satisfied about the state of the economy: inflation has slowed sharply, petrol prices are down, jobs are plentiful, incomes are rising and the stock market is strong. But survey after survey suggests that Americans are in fact quite unhappy. They think that the economy is in bad shape and that President Joe Biden is mismanaging it.” Politically dysfunctional America is economically vibrant, but the question is: Can the Titan hold up the world order it established after the Second World War?
Narain Batra is the author of India In A New Key: Nehru To Modi available at Amazon. He is affiliated with Norwich University, US.