Long Kaifeng argues that the only way to abolish American hegemony is through a new world war.
In the wake of Hamas’carnage inside Israel on 7October, the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning said that China calls for “immediate ceasefire”（尽快停火）“resumption of peace talks” (恢复和谈), “two-state formula” (两国方案), but didn’t mention Hamas by name at all, albeit in some briefings the official media addressed them as “armed groups”（武装组织）from the Gaza strip. It is no secret that Hamas and Hezbollah are supported by Iran, and China has been aiding the heavily sanctioned Iran. The world knows how Huawei and ZTE, two of China’s telecom giants circumvented sanctions and sold US origin products to Iran during Donald Trump’s presidency. ZTE was forced to pay almost US$2 billion.
Undoubtedly, the Arab world has emerged as China’s new strategic pillar. China’s economic penetration has deepenedin the region and has clear strategic goals. In order to understand these goals, and how China sees the raging wars in Europe, Middle East and a possible war in East Asia, Long Kaifeng’s four articles expounding these “three major wars” paradigm have been briefly discussed below. The first was written in 2018 and the other three between April and June 2023. The articles reveal how China is playing or will play its role in these wars that aim to destroy the US hegemony and replace American centrism with Eurasian centrism.
Long Kaifeng, a retired military officer and strategist, argues in the first article written in 2018 that at present the “Fourth World War” is going on, where three major wars are unfolding; the outcome of these will destroy the unipolarity of the US and establish a new world order dominated by Eurasia (欧亚主导的)centrism.He believes that the US has reached the pinnacle of its hegemonic expansion and is on the decline, which is in uniformity with the “rise of the East and decline of the West” indicating China’s global ascent. Long posits that during the Korean war the US almost lost its hegemonic advantage to the USSR, had it not been forced to compromise with China (不得不对中国妥协) during the Vietnam War,the advantage would have been lost. Therefore, these wars together with the Iraq and Afghan wars led by NATO demonstrated that the US would not be able to withstand an expended protracted war. Long argues that the unipolar hegemonic order established by the US since its withdrawal from Afghanistan has collapsed, and the US-centric order would be replaced by a Eurasian centric order after the following three inevitable wars.
According to the Chinese strategist, the US will fight three inevitable wars in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia for protecting its hegemony in these regions. Long lists these war campaigns as the Mediterranean campaign dominated by the US and Russia,where China and Europe will play a supporting role, the Middle East war campaign where China, Russia, Europe and the United States would be natural players (自然主要玩家), and the East Asian campaign to redefine the Asia-Pacific order. The key to the East Asian war campaign where China and the US are the major players with Russia playing a marginal role, and the Southern Kuril Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the Diaoyu Islands, and Taiwan as the major flashpoints. Long estimates that it will take 10 to 30 years, or even longer for these wars to change the US dominated world order, therefore, China must be prepared for a protracted war and seize the historical opportunity of the changing world. This is perhaps the logic behind “right now there are changesthe likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years (百年未有之大变局)—and we are the ones driving these changes together”, as President Xi Jinpingtold President Putin during his Russia visit in March 2023, to which Putin said “I agree”.
Long argues that China is not afraid of fighting a war with the US, for unlike the erstwhile USSR,China has it all—a perfect industrial structure and strong industrial production capacity, and the market in the “Belt and Road” countries in Europe, Asia and Africa. With these two things alone, it would be meaningless for the US to engage with major powers even in a new cold war, least to talk about the hot war owing to nuclear deterrence, hypersonic missiles and capabilitiesto launch virus, genetic, cyber etc., warfare. He rules out a direct confrontation with the major powers, however, states that the possibility of a direct war on the territory of a third country, similar to the Korean and Vietnam War, is very likely.
Three more articles that were written between April and June 2023 are essentially expanding the scope of his 2018 article. Long Kaifeng argues inthe article written on 1May 2023 that the only way to abolish American hegemony is through a new world war. He says that the purpose of the Russia-Ukraine war is to disintegrate NATO, make the EU independent, and rebuild the European security system. The Middle East War is aimed to further erode the US hegemony and achieve three-fold goals of Arab unity, the establishment of the Palestinian state, and a severe thrashing (痛殴) of Israel. The Middle East campaign is considered indispensable for breaking the US dollar hegemony, which Long asserts is tantamount to annihilating the enemy by disrupting its food supply lines. The way out for the US, according to Long is to kneel down, surrender, and negotiate compromises albeit in his assessment, “American imperialism is not used to shed tears until it sees the coffin”. In thearticle written on 8 April 2023, Long not only predicts the end of US hegemony after the above three wars but also the disintegration of the US. Therefore, the essence of China’s strategy in dealing with the US inLong Kaifengview is “you fight yours and I fight mine” strategy.
B.R. Deepak is Professor, Center of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.