The brutal and uncomfortable fact based on historical data is: voters ignore corruption when they like a leader.
Depending on which side of the ideological fence you are, there will be applause as well as dismay at the latest Supreme Court order that has granted “interim” bail to AAP convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal so that he can campaign during the remaining phases of the Lok Sabha elections. The unprecedented order has been given without getting into the “merits of the case” whereby Kejriwal is accused of corruption in the so-called liquor excise policy scam. The interim bail, it seems, is a unique one off and Kejriwal has also been ordered to go back to Tihar Jail after voting for the last phase ends on 1 June 2024. The Supreme Court order has sparked off a fierce controversy. While some applaud the move as a blow for individual liberty and against the “misuse” of Central agencies by the Narendra Modi-led NDA regime, others argue that the top court has acted in a very arbitrary manner and opened a can of worms. The authors have no desire to join the debate. One thing they remain convinced about is that bail should be the default option in most cases because court proceedings drag on for too long in India. They also feel, the “bail as default” principle should be applied universally, not selectively. According to data released by the National Crime Records Bureau last year, more than 75% of the 5.5 lakh people inside jails were under trials. Hundreds of thousands of them have spend as much time behind bars as they would have had they been convicted. More than “interim” bail to Arvind Kejriwal, it is this cruel injustice that should be the focus of a serious conversation.
But the brouhaha over the interim bail bail granted to Arvind Kejriwal made the authors think of another aspect related to Indian politics. Does corruption engage the mind of citizens when they are making up their minds on whom to vote for? In the media—both mainstream and now social—corruption is always a hot button issue. Mixed with cronyism, it has been a rallying point for politicians since decades. When Indira Gandhi towered over Indian polity, the discourse was on how “Tatas & Birlas” are thieves. Today, when Narendra Modi towers over Indian polity, her grandson Rahul Gandhi is making repeated attempts to brand Modi, Ambani and Adani as thieves. There has hardly been a week over the last decade when he has not accused Prime Minister Modi of handing over resources belonging to the nation and the poor to his rich crony friends. He is continuing with the theme even during the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign. Whether his persistent attacks will persuade enough voters to change their minds can be seen only on 4 June when the votes are counted, and results are announced. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Rahul Gandhi had repeatedly accused Narendra Modi of corruption in the Rafael fighter jet deal with France worth about $9 billion. He had dragged in now bankrupt industrialist Anil Ambani, younger brother of Mukesh Ambani, to the controversy and accused Modi of handing over “Rs 30,000 crores” to him. In hindsight, the Indian voter was not very impressed with the manner in which Rahul Gandhi described Modi as “Chowkidar Chor Hai”.
In hindsight, just a few examples will show that corruption, on its own, is not a game changing issue for the Indian voters. If they like a political leader, they will vote for that person and her/his party irrespective of how serious and credible charges of corruption against them are. It is only when corruption becomes a part of poor governance, arrogance and economic distress that corruption seems to become and issue. The best illustration of this comes from what happened to the second tenure of the UPA regime. In 2009, the alliance won a fabulous repeat victory in the Lok Sabha elections and the Congress actually won more than 200 seats. But the India Against Corruption movement started by Anna Hazare, Arvind Kejriwal and others in 2011 managed to bring the UPA regime to its knees. Many analysts still think the massive loss suffered by the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was primarily because of the anti-corruption movement. The authors disagree. In their opinion, it was severe economic distress, policy paralysis, entitled arrogance of the ruling regime and its “perceived” anti-Hindu bias that cooked its goose.
The brutal and uncomfortable fact based on historical data is: voters ignore corruption when they like a leader. Let’s start with B.S. Yediyurappa, former Chief Minister of Karnataka, who is credited with building the BJP into a formidable force in the southern state. Facing serious corruption charges, he was asked to resign in 2011 as Chief Minister by the BJP top brass led by patriarch L.K. Advani. Yediyurappa revolted and the BJP was clobbered in the 2013 Assembly elections. When Modi became prime ministerial candidate, the satrap was brought back and the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections handsomely in the state in both 2014 and 2019. Many ascribe the defeat of the BJP in the 2023 Assembly elections to poor governance and the “absence” of Yediyurappa.
In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the late J. Jayalalithaa is a classic example of how voters are comfortable with corruption. She won a spectacular victory in the 1991 assembly elections. Hubris and serious charges of corruption combined to make voters of the state to inflict a humiliating defeat on her in the 1996 elections. But she was back with a bang in 2001 as most voters in Tamil Nadu felt she had been “punished” once in 1996 and that was enough. Jayalalithaa was seeking a repeat mandate in 2016 when she was convicted on charges of corruption. It made no difference as the voters of Tamil Nadu gave an overwhelming verdict in favour of their “Amma”.
An even more classical example is Lalu Prasad Yadav, former Chief Minister of Bihar and the patriarch of the regional party RJD. He had to resign in 1997 as Chief Minister because of the charges he faced in the so called “fodder scam” and installed his illiterate wife Rabri Devi as the Chief Minister.
Many thought his goose was cooked.
But his party recorded a spectacular victory in the 2000 Assembly elections. Since then, Lalu Yadav has been convicted multiple times for corruption. But for his supporters in Bihar, and that is a large chunk of the state, Lalu remains an icon. Even his son Tejashwi Yadav faces serious charges of corruption. But most analysts who follow Bihar politics are convinced he will be the Chief Minister of Bihar after Assembly elections of November 2025.
What about Arvind Kejriwal? More than this Lok Sabha election, it would be interesting to see what happens when Delhi goes for Assembly elections in February 2025.
Yashwant Deshmukh is Founder & Editor in Chief of CVoter Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director.