The people’s verdict on the Assembly elections to the five states shall be out on Sunday and would determine the political narrative for the 2024 Parliamentary polls. However, the veracity of the exit polls that were shown on various TV channels on Thursday shall be in question.
Psephology is a young science and in India, most of the pollsters have always got the outcome wrong, largely because the western models they adhere to, do not necessarily provide accurate forecast because of the complexity of our society. Yes, there have been occasions when the results have been on the lines as shown in the exit polls by some, but this is rare.
It is important to understand that political parties have in the past used opinion polls and exit polls to create a perception in their favour, and these attempts succeeded to some degree by influencing impressionable minds. But by and large, ahead of every election, the voters make up their minds and vote according to what they believe to be the major issues.
The Election Commission should intervene and ensure that in future the polls do not play any major role in interfering with the electoral process, and the electronic media in particular, refrains from adding or subtracting from the efforts of political parties. In other words, if an honest and objective exercise in gauging the mood of the nation is done, it is fine, but it should not be a method of campaigning adopted by politicians to further their chances and to mislead the voters about the final outcome.
This is a difficult call, and this time also, there were protests by the Bharatiya Rashtra Samithi leaders, that the exit polls were indicating a trend adverse to their interests even while the polling was in progress. The party has also taken up the matter with the Election Commission, which alone is the final authority to play the referee in this connection.
There have been times in the past, when on the pretext of covering the polling, TV cameras start showing huge turnout in areas where the Muslims are voting. This may appear to be a harmless exercise but the objective in this polarised world of politics is to send a message to the majority community to come out and also cast their vote in vengeance for the other side.
The point is that there should be checks and balances to ensure fair coverage and the channels which infringe the Election Commission’s stipulation, should be dealt with in accordance with the rules. This is difficult to implement and it is always better if there is self-regulation at the backend of the channels and the editors and owners monitor the coverage strictly.
Coming to the latest instance of exit polls, there seems to be a mismatch in the coverage between the ground reports as shown earlier and the final exit polls so far as some states go. If the final outcome on Sunday is at variance with the ground reports, it shall impact the credibility of the channels in the long run.
As it is, people are wary of the media and many are convinced that their role as means of giving fair and objective coverage stands diminished in view of various restraints.
The general view is that the exit polls are part of the overall masala of coverage and should be taken with a pinch of salt. The scientific basis in many cases is lacking and the entire issue is similar to someone going for treatment to a quack rather than specialized doctors. This is where the fear of the outcome comes up and overall affects the credibility of the media in the eyes of the citizens.
If the exit polls as shown by various channels are correct, the real story lies in Telangana, where a change of government after ten years has been predicted. The BRS came to power riding on a huge sentiment generated after the creation of the state and has been total control since 2014 when the party was first voted in.
The emergence of the BRS as a political power has its origins in the political stupidity of the Congress, which out of political ambitions of some leaders, made an announcement on the birthday of its leader, Sonia Gandhi on 9 December 2009, that a separate state would be carved out from Andhra Pradesh.
It was the decision which undid what the party had achieved in both the 2004 and 2009 Parliamentary polls, under the overall leadership of Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, whose efforts helped in bringing the grand old party to power at the Centre on both occasions.
YSR died in a mysterious helicopter crash ahead of the announcement and ever since the state came into being, the Congress was unable to replicate its grand performances. However, a strong anti-incumbency wave against the ruling dispensation in the state coupled with the resurgence of the Congress under the leadership of its state president Revanth Reddy seems to be playing a major factor in these elections. The ground reports and the exit polls are predicting the same outcome.
The issue is that if the Congress is able to wrest the state government in the country’s youngest state, the political messaging would be very clear for many parties that have a stake there. Apart from BRS and the BJP, Asaduddin Owaisi and his political outfit may also have to be prepared for what was coming. The people’s verdict is always supreme.
Between us.