Over the last nine years, the United States has emerged as the most significant partner for India and China its most formidable challenge.
Over the last nine years, India has taken several far-reaching initiatives both domestically and globally that have significantly enhanced its clout and prestige in the world.
RELATIONS WITH
THE U.S.
The dynamism in India’s ties with the US over the last nine years has transformed the US-India partnership into India’s most consequential relationship. During this period the relationship has touched new heights and continues to expand rapidly. Both countries are active members of the Quad. India conducts the highest number of military exercises with the US. Both countries are assiduously working together for a rules-based international order, a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific with freedom of navigation and overflights. The US is the largest trading partner of India. The increasingly assertive and expansionist actions of China in recent years have brought India and the US closer together.
RELATIONS WITH WEST ASIA/MIDDLE EAST
One of the most significant achievements of Modi’s tenure is the significant energy imparted to India’s relations with West Asia/Middle East. India is dependent on the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states for 42% of its overall oil imports. Qatar is also India’s dominant supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Indian nationals make up the Gulf states’ largest expatriate community, with an estimated 8 million plus Indian nationals living and working in the region. The GCC is also India’s largest regional-bloc trading partner. The GCC has also been providing over 50% of India’s total annual inward remittances. India recently signed an ambitious FTA with the UAE. Relations in traditional areas have been supplemented through diversification in recent years into security and defence cooperation. Several countries in the Middle East/West Asia including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Palestine have decorated PM Modi with their highest national awards. India’s growing relations with these countries have had the added benefit of significantly reducing their support for Pakistan, particularly on India-Pakistan issues.
Rapidly expanding relations with West Asia have moved in tandem with a sharp upswing in ties with Israel. The I2U2 (India, Israel, the US, UAE) Initiative is helping India to straddle the earlier chasm between Israel and the Gulf nations.
Neighbourhood First Policy
India’s political, strategic and economic relations with most of India’s neighbours have shown considerable improvement under the “Neighbourhood First” policy espoused by PM Modi at the beginning of his first tenure.
Relations with Bangladesh are better today than they have ever been since 1975. The unanimous ratification of Land Boundary Agreement and highly fruitful visits by Modi to Dhaka in June 2015, and March 2021, and Sheikh Hasina to New Delhi in April 2017, October 2019 and September 2022 provided significant fillip to bilateral partnership.
PM Modi’s first visit to Nepal in August 2014 was a huge success. The Indian Government responded with exemplary swiftness to provide relief and medical care to the victims of the huge earthquake that struck Nepal in April, 2015. Since his first visit, PM Modi made four subsequent visits to Nepal. There was a short period of turbulence in bilateral ties during the tenure of Nepalese PM K.P. Sharma Oli. However, relations have been on a steady upward trajectory after Oli was deposed by the Nepalese Supreme Court in July, 2021.
PM Modi travelled to Sri Lanka in 2015. This was the first bilateral visit by an Indian PM after 28 years. It was a resounding success. India’s generous support in recent months, amounting to around $4 billion and timely supplies of urgently needed food, fuel, fertilizers, medicines and other daily use commodities have established trust between the people and leadership of the two countries, notwithstanding the tilt towards China that was evident for some years.
With Pakistan, India has sent out a firm message that no talks will take place unless cross-border terrorism by Pakistan stops. By firmly responding through surgical strikes in September 2016 and on the Balakot terrorist training camp in February 2019, India has categorically informed Pakistan that it will face retribution for any terrorist actions against India. By revoking Article 370 relating to the special status of Kashmir in August 2019, India has done away with any role that Pakistan might have assumed for itself in the Kashmir issue.
India recalled its personnel from Kabul immediately after the Taliban came to power in August 2021. Notwithstanding that India does not have a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, India has supplied wheat, medicines and other humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan. Taliban is keen that India reopen its embassy in Kabul. India has deputed a Technical Team in Kabul to oversee the distribution of its assistance. It has not let its guard down as Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to host a large number of terrorist groups which they could activate at any time.
Relations with Maldives registered a rapid upward trajectory when the government of former President Abdulla Yameen was defeated and Ibrahim Solih assumed power in September, 2018.
It is clear that barring Pakistan and Afghanistan, India’s relations with all other SAARC members are significantly better today than they were in 2014.
RELATIONS WITH
JAPAN & AUSTRALIA
India’s relations with Japan and Australia have witnessed a momentous jump. This is reflected in the conclusion of the civilian nuclear deals by India with both these countries. The three countries also entered into a Supply Chain Resilience Initiative in April 2021. PMs of both the countries visited India in March, 2023. PM Modi is scheduled to visit both Japan and Australia in the coming months. Japanese and Australian PMs are expected to visit India in September for the G20 Summit.
VACCINE MAITRI
INITIATIVE
The leadership displayed by India in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic in its health, economic and social impact has won it huge praise and respect from the world. India also emerged as one of the few countries to share about 300 million vaccine doses with more than 100 countries. This compassionate attitude particularly towards the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, who were denied access to the vaccines has significantly enhanced India’s stature. The world has realized that India’s development and growth is good not only for its own people but the whole world, particularly the developing countries.
INDIA’S G20
PRESIDENCY
India’s G20 Presidency in 2023 is based on its ethos of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.” This is enshrined in its motto of the Presidency “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” India is one of the few major countries which has cordial relations with Russia as well as with the West and Ukraine. Polarization between the West and Russia and China has grown since the Bali Summit. This has made the task of arriving at an agreed text at the G20 Summit in September, 2023 even more difficult.
India is handling its G20 Presidency very differently from the preceding countries. Realizing that no decisions by the G20 nations would be sustainable in the absence of the large number of developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America who are not a part of the process, India organized a Voice of the Global South Summit in January 2023 to seek their views, concerns and suggestions for incorporating into the G20 deliberations. About 125 countries shared their thoughts.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Relationship between India and Russia came under stress due to pressure from the West to condemn Russia for its attack on Ukraine in February 2022. India took a principled position by abstaining on most of the Resolutions in the UN Security Council and General Assembly and advocating the path of peace, diplomacy and dialogue. To safeguard its energy security, India significantly enhanced its imports of crude oil from Russia. The western nations including the US and Europe have come to grudgingly accept and respect, if not exactly applaud, India’s approach to the conflict. India has continued to maintain amiable relations with Ukraine by supplying it humanitarian aid including medical supplies and equipment. The increasing camaraderie of Russia and China and increasing emergence of Russia as a subordinate partner of China could force India to reassess its relations with Russia.
EUROPE
India’s relations with European nations including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and several others have shown a strong uptick. India also resumed negotiations for FTAs on Trade, Investment and Geographical Indications with the European Union in May, 2021.
OUTREACH TO INDIAN DIASPORA, SMALLER COUNTRIES
One of the most important policies is reaching out to the Indian diaspora in different parts of the world. PM Modi (and his Ministers) have spoken to huge, enthusiastic crowds in all parts of the world. The Indian diaspora has been transformed into a vibrant catalyst for economic growth of India.
India has reached out to many relatively smaller countries around the globe including Pacific Island nations, in Africa, Europe, Latin America etc., to strengthen bilateral political and economic ties. India decided to open new embassies in 18 African countries and several more to expand India’s footprint.
On the multilateral front, India successfully launched the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure Initiative. More than 100 countries have joined the ISA.
India’s Act East Policy and its enhanced engagement with Central Asia, Nordic states, Republic of Korea are yielding positive results.
RELATIONS WITH CHINA
In the first few years of his tenure, PM Modi made every effort to have a warm relationship with China. These attempts however received a rude shock, first with the standoff in Doklam in 2017, and then with the clash in Galwan in June 2020. India has made it clear that relations will not be restored to normalcy unless the status quo-ante of April, 2020 is restored. India has also taken several measures to dilute its economic engagement with China with mixed results.
CONCLUSION
The bold, courageous and visionary leadership of Prime Minister Modi has helped the country to deftly navigate the myriad challenges confronting it and to effectively leverage the huge opportunities available to promote India’s political, security, strategic and economic interests.
Over the last nine years, the United States has emerged as the most significant partner for India and China its most formidable challenge. The success of PM Modi’s and India’s foreign policy in the coming years will depend on how effectively India is able expand and deepen its multi-faceted relations with the US and other partners, and safeguard and protect its interests and concerns with China.
- Ashok Sajjanhar is a former Indian ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.