NEW DELHI: Many Congress leaders are unhappy with Rahul’s strategy.
Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has kept caste at the centre of his political strategy. However, this strategy might backfire on both Rahul Gandhi and the Congress.
Experts believe Rahul is on a path that could create significant problems for Congress in the future. They draw parallels to former Prime Minister V.P. Singh, who pursued a similar strategy. Singh implemented the Mandal Commission report in 1990 with hopes of long-term rule, but his move backfired. The resulting caste-related violence caused V.P. Singh to lose power within a month. Regional parties benefited from his caste politics, while the BJP united Hindus around the temple issue. Congress suffered the most, losing its entire vote bank to the regional parties and the BJP. In the past 35 years, Congress has not been able to secure a majority on its own in Delhi and has lost ground in many states to regional parties.
Rahul is following the path of Mandal politics, which his grandmother Indira Gandhi and father Rajiv Gandhi had opposed. For the past year, he has been focusing on the issue of caste census. He also makes statements that embarrass his own party, such as questioning how many officers are from backward castes or criticises the government on the pre-budget halwa ceremony on caste lines. He seems unaware that this tradition dates back to governments led by the Congress. Consequently, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman asked Rahul in the House how many Backwards were in institutions associated with the Congress, he appeared upset.
Ironically, while in the 2017 Gujarat elections, Rahul visited temples seeking Hindu votes and identified as a “janeau dhari” Brahmin, in 2024, his strategy now is to align with the SCs, STs, OBCs, and Muslims. However, he fails to realise that in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, caste-based parties such as the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal, will keep thriving thanks to his focus on caste politics. This approach could provoke the BJP to focus on communal politics. Meanwhile, his ally Akhilesh Yadav of the SP, has started to appeal to Brahmins and upper castes, hoping to gain their support just as BSP leader Mayawati did.
Akhilesh Yadav has clearly understood that achieving a majority without upper-caste voters is difficult. But Rahul Gandhi is focusing on opposing Brahmins, who were once a traditional vote bank for Congress. But Akhilesh is unlikely to gain upper-caste votes like Mayawati did. In the 90s, upper castes voted for Mayawati to defeat the Samajwadi Party, and she did not disappoint them after coming to power by sincerely trying to improve the law and order situation as Chief Minister.
Akhilesh Yadav’s challenge is that the SP is still seen as protecting criminals and engaging in Muslim appeasement. It’s because Rahul is practising caste politics that Akhilesh is aligning with him to ensure his backward caste and Muslim votes remain intact.
Many Congress leaders are unhappy with Rahul’s caste politics strategy. They know that except for two or three states, Backward politics can prove costly in states such as Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Gujarat. Even in a state like Uttar Pradesh, BJP is focusing on the issue of law and order. Congress leaders believe that Rahul’s politics will only help the regional parties and Congress will lose, because the forward castes will not vote for it.
Caste politics will also have a direct impact on state politics. Firstly, pressure will increase on Congress-ruled states to increase the reservation limit, secondly, in the state elections to be held after three months, Congress may suffer losses in states like Haryana and Maharashtra due to Dalit and backward politics. Today in Haryana Congress has such faces who can bring the party back to power, like former Chief Minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda. In such a situation, if the demand arises to make a Dalit or OBC the Chief Minister face, then Congress will be trapped. Supporters of MP Kumari Selja are hopeful that their leader will be the next Chief Minister of Haryana. If Congress plays the politics of backward classes in Haryana, then Jat votes may desert the party. In Maharashtra also, upper castes can turn away from Congress.
Most importantly, the BJP will likely emphasise on Hindutva and nationalism to keep Hindu votes united. While the opposition currently appears strong in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand, this strength is largely due to the BJP’s own challenges: ten years of anti-incumbency in Haryana, internal conflicts in Maharashtra, and a united opposition in Jharkhand. Caste politics is not a major issue in these states at the moment.