The currently sluggish SAARC and the BIMSTEC will have to be revived.
At a time when the world is in a state of political turmoil, India’s neighbourhood is not witnessing as much violence as some other regions. But in recent times this region too has degenerated to discernible levels of political instability and diplomatic chasms among nations which constitute the South Asian and East Asian landmasses.
Among India’s South Asian neighbours, barring the tiny kingdom of Bhutan, others including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and lately Bangladesh are afflicted internally, with some levels of political instability and/or antagonism with neighbours. Even Bhutan, whose orientation is peaceful and inward looking, has its territorial borders being eyed by an expansionist China, which is in occupation of some Bhutanese territory where it is building villages and other infrastructure close to Bhutan’s borders. As regards East Asia, the Chinese are working overtime to influence Myanmar and its military junta while substantially expanding its business ties with Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, and even Japan and Philippines that are not politically close to China. China’s intention is to make these nations economically dependent.
The overly ambitious China, with its imperial leanings, is carving out diverse areas of influence in the nations of South and East Asia. Equally, China’s intent to marginalize India has been more than evident since the last many decades. Somewhere India is seen by a few strategic analysts as not being equally firm to counter Chinese assertiveness. Though India does not covet an inch of Tibetan/Chinese territory, the same cannot be said of the Chinese. It is hoped that the meeting of the Special Representatives of both nations last year to resolve the boundary issue, Indian NSA Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing will reach a mutually acceptable solution and India’s rightful position will not be sacrificed at the altar of Chinese bullying tactics. The nation must be firm while dealing with the Chinese for our Armed Forces are fully capable of thwarting any further Chinese incursions which the Chinese are more than aware of.
Commencing with the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, India has done well to carve out a fresh approach. The Taliban too, like rest of the Afghan people, respect India for its policy of non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs and generous no-strings attached aid to the Kabul administration since many decades. Afghanistan will now not allow Pakistan to use its territory for terror activities against India. We must accordingly continue to assist Afghanistan in its developmental activities.
As regards Pakistan, successive governments and all Indian PMs, to date, have made efforts to establish good neighbourly relations with Pakistan but to no avail. Thus as India, being the largest and most powerful nation in South Asia, tries to drill some sense into Pakistan, it must ensure its security preparedness of a high order as India does face a credible two-front threat from Pakistan and China in collusion. Pakistan, in particular, has to be made more than aware of India’s geopolitical red lines. It must be conveyed to Pakistan that so far India has not exploited many of Pakistan’s faultlines and Pakistan too better learn to reciprocate.
Since last August, in a surprising and totally unexpected development, the pro-India PM of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, and her Awami League government were unceremoniously ousted by their army and ostensibly by some form of a students’ revolution. Within hours of her expulsion from Dhaka to New Delhi, Nobel Prize winner economist, Muhammad Yunus was flown into Bangladesh. He took over as the Interim Adviser of the government in Dhaka and is virtually now ruling the nation. Meanwhile, massive uncalled for violence against the minorities, particularly Hindus is going on in Bangladesh, which Dhaka refuses to acknowledge. India so far has maintained a reasonably soft attitude towards the Bangladesh apart from a couple of statements from the Indian government. However, just last fortnight, the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri was dispatched to Dhaka to convey India’s concerns to the Bangladesh government where he met his counterparts and also called upon Dhaka’s head of government, Yunus. Hopefully, a firm message would have reached the Dhaka government. India and Bangladesh have wide ranging economic ties and the latter depends a fair amount on India for its power needs, apart from importing many essential food items. Thus India does have the option of economically squeezing Bangladesh in case it does not change its attitude towards its minorities and if the threat of mass migration to India remains. Pakistan naturally sees an opportunity now to create fresh trouble for India through Bangladesh on India’s eastern border. India will now have to employ all its genius and resources to get back vital Indo-Bangladesh relations on an even keel.
In Nepal, with whom India has cultural and religious links, apart from lakhs of Nepalis having served in the Indian Army since over a century and continuing now, China has been on an overdrive to vitiate Indo-Nepalese relations. Somewhere India has also faltered with its Agniveer scheme in which the Nepalese recruitment for our Army has ceased. This problem should be speedily resolved, for the Chinese would love to have the Nepalese serving in their Army. And the Gurkhas thus one day may end up facing each other in case of an India-China confrontation.
In tiny Sri Lanka, with a change in government, its newly elected President Anura Dissanayake on his first visit to New Delhi has assured our government about Sri Lanka not allowing anyone to use its territory for anti-India agendas, which is welcome.
Myanmar which borders some of India’s restive northeastern states cannot be ignored. Myanmar has been in a state of chaos since the military coup in 2021. There are too many power centres in this continually strife-stricken country like the ruling military junta, various ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) in the Shan, Chin and Rakhine states. To ensure no migration of refugees or drug trafficking from Myanmar, India must establish contacts with the major stake-holders in Myanmar. The current turmoil in Bangladesh also impacts India’s Northeast in more ways than one.
Notwithstanding the challenges to India in harmonizing the nations of South Asia to develop fraternal and mutually cooperative ties with each other, India, as the largest and most powerful nation in South Asia, has its role cut out. The currently sluggish SAARC and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) will have to be revived towards this end notwithstanding machinations of Pakistan and to some extent China. Let India truly strive to harmonize South Asia in 2025. Economic interdependence among all the nations of South Asia will be the key apart from India’s diplomatic genius and political astuteness.
* Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd) served in the Indian Army.