PUNE: The Russians were taken by surprise, as their initial disjointed actions reveal. Over 120,000 civilians were evacuated and an emergency declared in Kursk and its adjoining districts.
Kursk. The very word conjures images of the titanic battle fought here in World War II during July 1943. That battle saw over a million German and Soviet troops along with 3,000 tanks clash in the largest tank battle in history. That six-week-long battle turned the tide of the war decisively towards the Soviet Union.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk is nowhere on that scale, but its impact could still be quite significant. At around 8 in the morning on 6 August 2024, around 1,000 Ukrainian troops, along with 20 tanks and 11 Infantry Combat Vehicles, crossed the Russian border in two thrust lines, and simply surged ahead in this lightly defended sector, held largely by second line troops and members of the National Guard. Using drones flying above the advancing columns for early warning, the Ukrainians advanced rapidly, bypassing opposition and heading for the line of the Seym River. In the initial breach made by the 80th Brigade, another brigade—the 82nd—was inducted, followed by two others a day later, to consolidate the gains. In just three days, the Ukrainians had advanced 30 kilometres deep, captured 28 villages (the Ukrainians claim 92) and occupied over 1,000 km of Russian territory. The town of Sudzhy, located 10 km from the border, along with its natural gas processing facility, was also captured in the first two days itself. Pictures emerged of Russian flags being gleefully pulled down and replaced by Ukrainian ones, and of surrendered Russian soldiers being marched off in droves. This bold and unexpected attack was the first invasion of Russia since 1941 and for the first time brought this ground war onto Russian soil.
This was not the first time that the Ukrainians had entered this sector. They had made limited forays earlier—once in May 2023, and again in March 2024. But these raids were by members of armed militia and not by regular troops. Perhaps they were seeking information and testing the ground for this major incursion. The Ukrainians have to be complimented for the manner in which they went about their Kursk offensive. This swift and methodically executed operation was a far cry from their “Spring Offensive” of 2023, which crawled forward timidly and advanced around 7-11 km in four months. This offensive was carried out in great secrecy, with only a select few involved in the planning. Elements of 103 Brigade, 22 Mechanized Brigade, and 80 and 82 Brigades got to their assembly areas just a few days before the attack. An elaborate ruse was played, wherein a likely Russian threat in this sector was built up, and that these forces were being sent as reinforcements in case of a Russian attack. The commanders were told about the exact nature of the offensive operation just two days in advance, and the crews informed when they had started their tank engines. Even their closest ally, the United States, was ostensibly kept in the dark (perhaps because the earlier Ukrainian offensive plan of 2023 was leaked from the Pentagon in the infamous Wikileaks). Though of course, the US would have been in the loop and would have provided vital intelligence and surveillance. The US had recently given permission for Ukraine to use western provided equipment and long-range artillery like HIMARS inside Russia. That factor was vital to the success of this operation.
The Russians were undoubtedly taken by surprise, as their initial disjointed actions reveal. Over 120,000 civilians were evacuated from the area and an emergency declared in Kursk and its adjoining districts. As Russian reinforcements began moving towards the area, the Ukrainians interdicted advancing columns with drone and long-range artillery fire. A Russian column of around 15 trucks was hit by a HIMARS strike, which virtually wiped out an entire battalion in the largest single day loss of the war. The Ukrainians also blew up three bridges along the Seym river with air and artillery strikes to prevent move of Russian reinforcements. They also damaged a pontoon bridge laid by the Russians a few days later. This delay in the move of Russian reinforcements, has enabled the Ukrainians to consolidate their positions. But Russia, and Putin himself, will be under great pressure to seal the breach and a strong cohesive Russian response will soon follow.
The offensive, though bold, is a dangerous gamble which can go either way. But after two years of being on the back foot, Ukraine finally got a huge psychological boost, which will be a tremendous fillip to its citizens and its soldiers fighting grimly in the south and east. As per the pronouncements of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the main aim seems to be to capture prime Russian territory which could then be a valuable chip for negotiations. As of now, Ukraine has no card to play on the negotiating table, and this may just provide it with an ace. Also, the Russians had been pushing ahead with their own offensives in the Kharkiv and Donbas sectors. It was hoped that the Kursk offensive would divert attention and perhaps even draw resources from these Russian actions. But that is a double-edged weapon. The Ukrainians have had to thin out their own defences in these sectors to build up the offensive force and that could provide weak spots, that can be exploited by the Russians. But its most significant achievement is that it has finally brought the war to Russia and the Russian people. That could ratchet up the pressure for a ceasefire.
The Russians have launched a “counter-terror operation” to restore the situation, and followed up with the usual barrage of drone and rocket attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and rear areas. But no serious counter-attacks have been launched so far. Perhaps their own strategic reserves are being assembled for that. Also, in spite of the pressure in Kursk, the Russians have not halted their own offensives inside Ukraine. Rather, they have intensified them. In the Kharkiv sector, they have pushed even deeper and captured the town of Hrodivka. In the Donbas sector, they have closed in on Pokrovsk—a vital rail and road junction, that could open the way for a capture of all of Donetzk. This is a sound strategy, which could expose Ukrainian vulnerabilities and maybe even force them to recoil.
The Ukrainians have attained a notable success but their forces are vulnerable to a Russian counter strike and could be at danger of being cut off. What could they do after this? Optimally, they could advance deeper towards Kursk, and its prized nuclear reactor, or even the logistical hub of Belgorod. But that would be beyond the capabilities and they would overextend themselves. They could consolidate along the existing positions on the line of the Seym river, which forms a good defensive line. In fact, Zelenskyy has taken a line out of Putin’s book and stated that they intend to create a “buffer zone” around that line. Or, they could pull back to more favourable defensive positions, 10-12 km inside the border where logistics and fire support would be easier. The crux lies in holding on to their gains, and not over-extend themselves. To convert this short term gain into a strategic advantage, it would be prudent to restrict themselves to defensive positions—including the town of Sudzhy—which they can hold and claim as a symbol of victory.
Although Ukraine hopes to use the gains of this offensive on the bargaining table, this incursion may just harden Putin’s stance. He has lost face and would try to make up for it, by pushing even deeper into Kharkiv and Donbas and intensifying the missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. There is also the fear of the war expanding in scope. Putin blames the Nato allies for extending this war, and nuclear sabre rattling is likely to increase, especially since Russian doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons if their territorial sovereignty is impacted. So, rather than paving the way for talks, this incursion may actually delay it.
Militarily and politically, it has been a victory for Zelenskyy. It will not help in the stated aim of, “Evicting the last Russian from the last inch of Ukrainian soil—including Crimea,” but it will provide a tremendous boost for the defence of Ukraine. It will also spur the US and their western allies to continue supplying it with ammunition and aid, which was also one of the underlying aims. It has also exposed Putin’s and Russia’s weaknesses, and hopefully it could bring some sort of pressure on him to accept a ceasefire, if nothing else. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine, coming close on his meeting with Putin at Moscow, just two months ago, could do much to bring it about. But that is still iffy. Seeing the psyche of Putin, he would only go in for a ceasefire from a position of absolute strength and this may merely harden his stance. Militarily, the Kursk offensive has been a well-executed action, but it will not end the war. There will be far more blood-letting before this needless war is finally concluded.
Ajay Singh is an international award-winning author of seven books and over 200 articles, including his latest book, “Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan… A World at War.” He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.