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I.N.D.I.A bloc collapse is inevitable

opinionI.N.D.I.A bloc collapse is inevitable

The ongoing campaign for the Delhi Assembly elections has contributed to the ever-increasing differences within the I.N.D.I.A bloc, which appears to be cracking up with most of the parties willingly backing the AAP at the cost of the Congress.

While it was always known that all was not well within the alliance, with regional parties fearing the dominance of the grand old party, it would have been difficult to imagine that the front constituted to battle the saffron brigade would collapse so soon. By endorsing AAP over the Congress, partners such the Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress have, in one way, helped in fulfilling the objective of the BJP, which never wanted this alliance to succeed.

In fact, it is well known that many of the I.N.D.I.A bloc members fear the Congress more than the BJP, since they feel that if the grand old party were to revive, it would be doing so by reclaiming the political space, currently occupied by smaller outfits.

The gloves are off in Delhi and the Congress and the AAP are at each other’s throats even though Arvind Kejriwal, in some of his interviews, has refused to talk about Rahul Gandhi and his stance on the plea that his party did not matter at all in the Delhi polls. This could be true since in most places, the contest is between the AAP and the BJP, with the Congress showing signs of revival in just 15 odd constituencies.
However, what is going against the Congress is that it is simply fighting this war with hardly any infrastructure and if it is able to do better than before, it would be purely if the people come out and support it on polling day. The supreme irony is that the BJP and the Congress have the same objective of “AAP Mukt Delhi” though the RSS position on all the 70 seats is unclear.

The Congress is banking heavily on the minority votes and if the Muslims and Sikhs do vote for its candidates, the outcome may throw a few surprises. Generally speaking, the Muslims vote for anyone who can defeat the BJP, and even though they do not agree with some of the AAP decisions, they may be forced to vote for its nominees. The Congress must realize that in order to get the Muslim votes, it should also be able to secure the support of the majority community in the city. It would be unthinkable to imagine any party winning merely because the minorities have supported it.
After the Maharashtra debacle where the Maha Vikas Aghadi suffered many unforeseen reverses, the future of the I.N.D.I.A bloc was always in doubt. There is speculation that many elected representatives of both the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) may drift towards the NDA, thus ensuring that the MVA ceases to exist. This obviously would have implications for the larger opposition unity.

In the national capital, the formation is on its last legs and once the polls get over, it would be virtually impossible to mend the relations between the partners who have opposed each other in a battle which is at one level farcical but has brought out the differences in the open. It is farcical since the result does not matter and even if AAP were to be back in power, the Central government as per the Constitutional provisions would continue to call the shots.

The Congress management has so far been found lacking and its communication department in particular seems to be in the sleep mode. In addition, Rahul and Priyanka have been making identical statements on the same issues, giving this impression that both of them were competing with each other. They should campaign, but if one has reacted to a situation, the other need not state similar things.
The BJP is on top of the polls so far as perception goes. This is largely because of its better organizational ability and communication skills. Its leaders excel in twisting utterances to their advantage, thereby putting its opponents on the defensive. The example of this can be found in the way Sonia Gandhi’s comments on the President’s address before the commencement of the budget session were presented, with the Congress unable to clarify its position.

The question that has arisen is not only about the survival of the I.N.D.I.A bloc but also how the Opposition plans to take on further challenges from the BJP and its partners. It is unthinkable that any anti-BJP front can ever succeed without the participation of the Congress, which is the primary Opposition party, even though its fortunes have been dwindling over the years.

The battle in Delhi is also about payback. The Congress wishes to do to AAP what the AAP did to it in Haryana, Goa and Gujarat. The two parties are already on the opposing sides in Punjab and recent Mayoral polls have shown that the differences are unlikely to be repaired in the near future.

The BJP is hoping to wrest advantage of these differences and score a historic win in Delhi, its first since 1993. There are reports which suggest that Manish Sisodia and Atishi Singh are both contesting with their back against the wall and even Arvind Kejriwal is having to struggle in his area, with Sandeep Dikshit cutting into his support base.
The short point is that the fight within the I.N.D.I.A bloc is in a way giving hope to the saffron brigade. Can the BJP be stopped? Between us.

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