There may not be a Trump presidency, even if he wins on 5 November, if the Democrats win the House.
Washington, DC: The U.S. 2024 Election will be like no other, and the people of India must anticipate more than a hotly contested race, but challenges that have not been witnessed in modern American politics or that are in accord with American political culture. At root, the 2024 election needs to be thought of not as a single election but a series of campaigns or stages from the campaign through Election Day on 5 November to the Inauguration of the new President on 20 January 2025, and the next presidential administration. There are three key stages. Each has its complexities, risks, and may leave foreign onlookers befuddled as, indeed, it does many Americans.
THE FIRST STAGE: THE 5 NOVEMBER ELECTION
On Election Day, Americans will vote for the President and Congress, all of the members of the U.S. House of Representatives (435 Representatives) and about one-third (33) of the U.S. Senate. On the presidential election, there are two likely outcomes. First, one candidate carries all or most of the key swing states overwhelmingly so that the results are known quickly: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Second, the election is very close and most of swing states do not have results for days—or even longer—afterward. Much depends on the outcome of these key battleground races. President Trump speaks of a victory on 5 November that is “too big to rig” and thus secures his victory. “Too big to rig” means that the victory is so large that it is beyond the ability of the Democrats or outside actors like the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to steal the election for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Winning the presidency is key but so are the races to determine control of the House of Representatives. The House is essential. The Republicans now control it with a 220 to 212 majority, with 3 vacancies due to Republican Mike Gallagher’s resignation, effective on 25 April 2024, and the deaths this year of Democratic Representatives Sheila Jackson Lee on 19 July and Bill Pascrell on 21 August.
There may not be a Trump presidency, even if he wins on 5 November, if the Democrats win the House. The 119th United States Congress will be sworn in on 3 January 2025. On 6 January 2025, one of its first duties, in joint session with the Senate, is to count and certify the Electoral College votes of the Presidential election. This process that has never been disrupted in American history is now under threat as Democrat Representative Jaime Raskin, an influential House Member, has said he will employ every measure to keep Trump from the White House, and the House is his point of leverage. There could be significant complications if the Electoral College vote is disputed, as is likely in Pennsylvania and other critical states, or is tied, in which case the House would determine the President, with each of the 50 States receiving one vote. In addition, there is absolute certainty that the Democrats will pressure the State Electors, that is, those people who will actually cast the State’s vote in accord with the rules of the Electoral College. This is ironic because it is precisely what the Democrats alleged Trump’s campaign did in 2020.
While 2024 looks very good for Republican majority, the Senate plays an important role as well. Again, if there is a tie in the Electoral College, the Senate of the 119th Congress would determine the Vice President.
THE SECOND STAGE: THE STRUGGLES AFTER ELECTION DAY
After 5 November, apart from Congress, if there is not an overwhelming Trump victory, there will be the immediate struggle over the election as votes arrive after Election Day by post in key states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Legal challenges will be inevitable and will perforce have to be decided by the Supreme Court. This will be an intensely contentious process. Moreover, the Biden-Harris administration will play a role. If Trump wins, there will be protests and rioting in U.S. cities, and likely “November,” or “December,” or “January Surprises” executed by the Biden administration to undermine the Trump victory. Given the performance of the Biden-Harris administration, there likely will be efforts to entrap President Trump, other efforts to intimidate Presidential Electors who are obligated to cast their Electoral College votes for Trump, lawyers working for President Trump, and other Republican leaders and electoral officials within the critical swing States. Riots and other forms of social unrest that should be suppressed will be tolerated by the Biden-Harris administration.
THE THIRD STAGE: INAUGURATION DAY AND AFTER
If the election is a close one, the people of India may be assured that no matter the struggles a new President will be sworn in at noon on 20 January 2025. However, which President takes the oath of office is critical for Indian national security interests. A Harris administration will, like the Obama and Biden administrations, be weak on the threat to India and the United States posed by the CCP. Conversely, a Trump administration will resume the work it began in 2017-2020 with partners like India to address the CCP threat and to restore confidence that allies and partners may have in the United States.
President Trump’s victory will restore a solid foundation for the Indo-U.S. partnership to continue to deepen, working with key actors like Australia, Japan, and Taiwan, to meet the threat from a hyper-aggressive People’s Republic of China. President Trump’s victory and inauguration is precisely what is necessary not only to repair the damage caused by the Obama-Biden administrations in their feckless response to the CCP’s hyper-aggression.
The 2024 election will be historic. It will be so because of its importance, Americans will choose the path down which their society will travel, but also because of its bitterness and concomitant struggle in each of the stages illuminated here. It is likely to be as no other Presidential election in U.S. history.
* James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.