In pure political terms, Narendra Modi has emerged as the designated survivor despite the BJP falling short of the required numbers, but still way above the mark along with its NDA partners. The Opposition, on the other hand, has improved its strength considerably and is making all kinds of dooms day prophecies over the life of the present government.
One thing needs to be understood clearly that this government is apparently going nowhere, and the parties opposing it shall have to find a way of dealing with it in Parliament, while keeping their flock together. From all indications, the Congress and its allies have to organize themselves better if they wish to take on the current dispensation.
There is also widespread speculation that the Opposition parties are vulnerable and over a period of time, the Saffron Brigade, in order to weaken the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, may entice away some MPs, and boost its own numbers.
Modi and Shah are 24X7 politicians and believe in real politiks. They are undeterred by the poll outcome and are now completely focused in running the government in the manner they wish to. There is no threat from any political outfit, and if the BJP has to ever face any challenge, it shall come from within. That is if at all.
There are valid reasons why the NDA Sarkar is safe and is capable of serving a full five-year term. No freshly elected MP wishes to have another election and would not want such an eventuality to be thrust on him or her. The MPs include those from the treasury benches as well as the Opposition.
Secondly, there have been conjectures that Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar may rock the boat by making demands which are unreasonable, and thus contribute to the short life of this arrangement. At least to begin with, there have been no such indications and neither of the two leaders, or for that matter any other ally, have made demands which could have been detrimental to the formation of the government.
There is a common factor that shall work so far as Nitish and Chandrababu go. They are trying to secure their own positions and would not want any competition from within their own parties. The two have not asked for any big ministries and have settled down for the portfolios allotted to them by Modi.
There is a political logic for their being so accommodative. They would not like any of their party colleagues to get the importance which would make them a future challenger. In case of Naidu, his focus would be to settle down his son, who has done exceedingly well within the organization, and is certainly going to inherit the political legacy of his illustrious father.
The critics of this government were hoping that there would be a crisis which would cause a discord in the NDA ranks over the distribution of portfolios but this has not happened. In fact, Modi is in complete control of his government and has distributed portfolios without any pressure from any quarters. The top four ministries have gone to the same colleagues who held them during the previous avatar and this reflects that pressures, if any, have not altered the thinking or decisions of the Prime Minister.
He has done what he wanted to do. It is also evident that Modi at some level realizes that this could be his final election and thus wants to work only with people he wishes to. His choices have made this abundantly clear. He believes in selective status quo and by giving one more term to his NSA, Ajit Doval and principal secretary, PK Mishra, he has shown that he was going to carry on with his original team.
There were reports that there was a move to exclude Nitin Gadkari from the Cabinet which proved to be completely baseless. Gadkari was easily amongst the best performing ministers of the previous government and has made it to the government once again on the basis of his strengths and capabilities. Yes, the NCP (Ajit Pawar group) is slightly peeved at being denied a Cabinet berth but this was because of their overall dismal performance.
There are also questions being raised on why the RSS, which is the ideological compass of the BJP, making so many noises following the poll results. The Sangh was upset with the BJP over certain matters because of which it decided not to participate in the polls this time. Its activists were missing in action. The Sangh volunteers’ absence did not prevent the formation of the NDA Sarkar. Presuming that the RSS was unhappy with Modi on some count, it was not able to prevent him from taking over for the record third consecutive time.
The short point is that power is a great cementing factor and once the government has been formed, it is very difficult to dislodge it. The Opposition shall have problems in keeping its flock together. In case of Congress, which is the principal opponent, its leadership shall have to be more vigilant, and address the views of the elected members within the party forums regularly.
There has been a lot speculation regarding the choice of the Speaker and it is unlikely that there would be any big surprise when that decision gets made. As for now, Modi is firmly in the saddle and having survived his first principal setback in the past ten years, he shall adapt to the reality. Between us.