Tough test for Indian diplomacy as pro-China leader comes to power in Maldives.
NEW Delhi
With President-elect of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, a known “India Out” backer and a pro-China leader, signalling to steer Male towards a Beijing-centric foreign policy, the Indian foreign policy establishment is set to face tough and testing times in the atoll nation, having immense strategic importance in the Indian Ocean. Confirming India’s fears, Muizzu announced to initiate the process of removing Indian military personnel from the island nation from 17 November when he will take over the Presidential office formally, in what is seen as a clear indication that “he wants to get rid of India’s influence and bring China closer to Maldives”. There was thunderous applause from the audience when Muizzu announced the removal of the foreign (Indian) military forces from the Maldives. The development in the tiny Indian Ocean nation has sounded an alarm bell in the Indian foreign policy establishment.
In fact, the elections in the Maldives were seen as a tussle between the “India First” and “India Out” campaigns. Removing Indian troops from the Maldives was a key election promise made by Muizzu. He won the elections defeating incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who had once projected the “India First Policy”.
So, the question dominating the discourse in the diplomatic establishment in New Delhi is whether India-Maldives ties are really in danger in this situation. Is the newly-elected Maldivian President going to focus on the “India Out” campaign? How is India going to tackle the situation in the Maldives and the Indian Ocean Region now, with China seeking to capitalize on its support for Muizzu’s political party as part of its strategy to expand its influence in the region? While India is preparing to deal with the emerging situation in the island nation, there is no denying New Delhi is expecting hard days for its diplomacy to address the upcoming challenges.
Definitely, New Delhi will scale up its outreach to the new dispensation in Male soon. In a bid to set the stage for the same, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Muizzu for winning the elections. “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on social media platform X. The two expressions—“India-Maldives time-tested relationship” and “cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region”—in Modi’s remarks carried a meaningful and powerful message for the Maldivian President-elect. MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi on Thursday made it a point to remind the Maldives of PM Modi being the “first leader” to congratulate Mohamed Muizzu. India has signalled that even as pro-China Muizzu’s victory may be an advantage for Beijing for now, New Delhi will continue with its focus on the Maldives. These initial efforts by India notwithstanding, the election of China-friendly Muizzu as President of the Maldives is going to pose a gigantic challenge for Indian diplomacy in Male.
TURBULENT TIMES?
Gearing up to face turbulent times in the Maldives, Indian diplomats in conversation with The Sunday Guardian admitted that “the Indian Ocean will see a fresh and much fiercer geopolitical contest even as a China-friendly leader is ready to rule the archipelago of Maldives”. Significantly, the Maldives sits in a strategically vital position in the middle of the Indian Ocean. It sits astride one of the world’s busiest east-west shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. Obviously, China has set its eyes on what follows the election of Muizzu in the Maldives, waiting for New Delhi-Male ties to become frosty. “That the development plan of Muizzu’s party was bankrolled by Chinese funds under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is enough to understand how he is going to oblige Beijing in capacity as President of the Maldives,” a diplomat told The Sunday Guardian. China’s state media report terming Muizzu’s victory as a win for Beijing and a blow to both India and the US confirms India’s apprehensions about Muizzu-Xi Jinping bonhomie in the future.
Notably, the Maldives President-elect has been mentored by former Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen, who is the creator of the “India Out” campaign. Yameen is currently in jail for corruption. However, Muizzu has declared that the former President of the country would be released soon in what is a signal about the fact that the two China-friendly leaders would be working more closely, adding to challenges that Indian diplomacy is going to face in Male. Muizzu, who was Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and People’s National Congress (PNC) coalition candidate, has been elected President of the Maldives. He was mayor of Male earlier during which China funded his projects generously. During Yameen’s Presidential term between 2013 and 2018, India’s relations with the Maldives had turned frosty. However, Male’s ties with Beijing had strengthened during the same period.
INDIA’S 4 CHALLENGES
Sources say that the Indian diplomatic establishment sees four immediate challenges as a result of a pro-China leader coming at the helm of the Maldives. One, there will be an increasing risk to India’s military stakes, its interests and other heavy investments in the Maldives. Two, China might use its proximity with the new dispensation in Male to ramp up its efforts to erode India’s influence in the Maldives. There is no denying that China has been helping Yameen and his political outfit to give momentum to the “India Out” campaign over the last few years. Moreover, China was unhappy with the presence of Indian military personnel in the Maldives. Beijing will be happier to see the back of Indian military personnel if Muizzu sends them back, said an official. There is no doubt that Muizzu will allow China to pursue its strategic objectives in the region. Thirdly, China is keen to exploit the situation to expand its strategic and military footprint in the Maldives keeping an eye on the Indian Ocean Region where it is keenly competing with India. “China believes that if India loses in the Maldives it will be good for its string of pearls strategy which Beijing has been working on for strategic encirclement of India,” a diplomatic source said. “In fact, Beijing has been vying for a maritime base in the Maldives for security of its sea lanes. This is also going to add to India’s headache if China succeeds in capturing a Hambantota-like port deep in the Indian Ocean with the help of the new dispensation in Male,” he added. According to reports, China has quietly acquired 17 islands in the heavily indebted Maldives for investment purposes. In a display of its strategic objective, China has also sent warships to visit the Maldives in the past to which India objected several times. “If China manages to set up a naval base in one of the islands in the Maldives then it would open a maritime front with India,” an official said.
The fourth challenge is related to the security issue, which the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson, Arindam Bagchi, also referred to during his briefing on Thursday. In fact, India has worries about the possibility of terror organisations such as Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) using the remote Maldivian islands as a launch pad against India and Indian interests. “If the dispensation led by Muizzu does not cooperate with India in the region, then the threat of terrorism would be increasing,” diplomatic sources said. Sources said that diplomats in the Maldives have already shared India’s security concerns with their counterparts. Security challenges are a major risk for the Maldives as well, diplomats reportedly told their counterparts in Male.
‘DOWN BUT NOT OUT’
Sharing their perspective on the fallout of the change of regime in the Maldives, some diplomats claim with cautious optimism, “India may be down, but not out.” “India has decided to stick to the wait-and-watch policy for now, we will wait for how the Muizzu dispensation works and how things unfold in future,” said people familiar with the meetings at the MEA. “It is too early to say that India has lost its valuable partner country Maldives,” said a diplomat. They admit that India has to work harder than before not only to protect its own interests in the Maldives, but also to deal with China’s challenges which will continue to grow manifold with a friendly regime in Male.
Meanwhile, New Delhi is reacting with utmost caution to the developments taking place in the Maldives. Responding to the Maldivian President-elect’s statement that Indian military personnel would be asked to leave the island, Arindam Bagchi chose to sum up his answer in only a few words, “India looks forward to engaging the new Maldives government on all issues.” “All I would say…the focus of our partnership with the Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities, including security challenges and priorities. As neighbours, we need to collaborate closely to address these challenges confronting our region, such as transnational crimes and humanitarian and disaster relief situations. We look forward to engaging with the new administration in the Maldives with all these issues,” Bagchi said.
The MEA spokesperson in fact sent out a message to Muizzu by reminding him “the need for the two countries to continue to work together to address our shared challenges and priorities, including security challenges.” In fact, India is planning to focus on the “smart power matrix” in the Maldives. According to sources it will focus more intensely on “soft power to balance hard power” in the Maldives. With this in view, Bagchi reminded Muizzu of neighbourly relations between New Delhi and Male. “Transnational crime and other security challenges” are the two key factors that India is expected to use to mount pressure on Male to have working ties with New Delhi as it was earlier. India will give fillip to diplomacy keeping in mind humanitarian issues as well. Indications are that India’s plan is to try to impress upon the newly-elected President that regional security challenges need to be addressed and India can be a reliable partner in this mission. “Security challenges cannot be ignored by the Maldives,” a diplomat said.
FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT, CULTURAL TIES
Sources say that India has decided to shelve the plans to enlist Male in the Indo-Pacific strategy for the time being. The way ahead for India so far is to focus on building up the capacity of the Maldives in several areas including security. With Muizzu’s election posing a real test for India’s Neighbourhood First policy as well, New Delhi is keen to continue to focus on developmental projects that it has aided and promoted in the island nation as part of its mission to reach out to the new dispensation. New Delhi will not hesitate to engage with the international community which is already closely watching political developments in the Maldives, with the atoll nation being strategically crucial for the global community as well. India wants countries such as the US, the UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc., to focus on security challenges in the Indian Ocean Region and on how the new regime addresses them. India will continue to extend support to the new President for the projects which were funded and developed by New Delhi in the Maldives when the government led by pro-India President Ibrahim Solih was in power.
While Muizzu has hoped to restore relations with India on the basis of respect for sovereignty of Male, the Indian side will give him a message that if there is any threat to sovereignty of the Maldives if it is from China. What India is also keeping in mind is the fact that Maldivians are mainly of Indian and Sri Lankan origin having strong cultural, economic and social ties with their respective countries. Their countries have traditionally been India’s sphere of influence. The new government in Male should not forget that India has been the prime regional partner of the Maldives, said an official. In what is being viewed by diplomats as a significant development, Maldives Speaker and former President Mohamed Nasheed has said that the new Maldives President-elect’s transition team hopes to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the swearing-in ceremony of Mohamed Muizzu in Male next month. In an interview with a newspaper, he said that the new Maldivian President would not be “anti-India” or “pro-China”. “Foreign and military policy regarding India will not change under the new government,” Nasheed added.