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One down, who’s next in Britain’s Tory leadership contest?

WorldOne down, who’s next in Britain’s Tory leadership contest?

London: At the current stage the support of the remaining 121 Conservative MPs is critical, the candidates endeavour to appeal to both their fellow MPs and to Conservative members.

During the summer recess the six Conservative Leadership candidates were selling themselves to the conservative base at hustings across the country. Before Conservative Party Members can chose from the final two on the ballot, members of parliament (MPs) have two opportunities to narrow the field, on 11th September the quarter-final four will be announced, and following the Conservative Conference on 11th October the final two will be on the ballot.

At the current stage the support of the remaining 121 Conservative MPs is critical, the candidates endeavour to appeal to both their fellow MPs and to Conservative members. All candidates are competing on a platform to unite the dysfunctional party, personal friendships, parliamentary experience, policy, lobbying and self-interest can be factors in MPs bestowing their support; these ballots are secret so MPs do not have to publicly explain themselves, but some MPs chose to declare who they support. Uniting the party or at least getting forbearance for a candidate is essential, but MPs and members are not always in agreement about who is best for the future of the party; and the British electorate who do not have a say in choosing the Leader of the Party, may have a totally different take. Policy, persuasion and personality all have a part to play, MPs will likely have more first-hand experience of each candidate’s competency while members will be drawn to those to whom they have an affinity.

All candidates want to champion the members, get younger people introduced to conservatism and involved in being Conservatives, they all want to reform/rebuild/renew the Party and each one hopes they can win the 2029 election.

Dame Priti Patel is out of the contest at the first hurdle with only 14 supporters; there is some discussion about whether she is a victim of tactical or decoy voting. Dame Priti was perceived as Boris Johnson 2.0, she was the only 100% Brexiteer in the contest, this was the first time she has contested for party leadership; since leaving the Home Office she has been relatively quiet in Westminster. Dame Priti has a long parliamentary record and some baggage; she emphasised the importance of members and activists, put them front and centre of her campaign, pledging to give members more say about policy and electing the Party Chair; she wanted to return Conservatives to local government and supported campaigns for the Welsh Senedd and Scottish Parliament. She had a 100-day plan to return CCHQ to be an effective opposition, by working to rebuild trust with the grassroots. Her offer was packed with damnations of the Labour party’s decisions to date and full of her 14 years of experience and patriotism; her campaign slogan was “Unite to Win” a formula that applied to all candidates. Notable that 3 of the 121 MPs did not cast a vote.

The 5 remaining candidates are: Robert Jenrick, with 28 supporters, is the right wing’s alternative to Kemi Badenoch, he resigned from Rishi Sunak’s government over a matter of principle, over the Rwanda Bill. Jenrick says he is a “collegiate leader”, so far he tops the league of attracting the most donations; and since 1 August bookmaker William Hill have Jenrick in pole position.

He is a confident orator and vehemently anti-immigration he says “Anyone who comes here illegally should be deported in days”, and he admits to the governments failures since 2019 “Growth too low. Taxes too high. Public services too sclerotic. Migration out of control. Society not cohesive enough”, especially the “petty infighting” and the abandonment of Conservative “foundational values” of entrepreneurship and free enterprise, self-reliance, family, strong defence and the nation state. He wants the Conservatives to be a “broad church with a common creed” at his launch event there were many younger people in the audience. A Brexit Remainer who wants to “retire” Nigel Farage, emasculate the Reform Party, have a total clear out of CCHQ and has said he would give Boris Johnson a job in his cabinet. He talks up Britain’s past and present greatness, the message is similar to “Make Britain Great Again”, his talk is likely to appeal to Reform switchers.

Kemi Badenoch, with 22 supporters, is of Nigerian descent with a degree in engineering, 7 years in Parliament she has pinned her pitch to her heroine Margaret Thatcher, small state, low tax, supports British values, her mantra is “lighter, simpler, nimbler government”. Her career spans many professions and in her 7 years she has amassed experience in several ministries. Badenoch was in the second wave of MP resignations that brought down Boris Johnson’s government. She is not hesitant to talk about race relations or colonialism or LGBTQ+ rights, which had earned her the reputation of being brave and a straight talker, because she is black it is easier for her to be anti-woke. The Sun reported that Badenoch was more concerned about the election five “sectarian Islamist” independent MPs rather than the five ReformUK Party MPs. Many polls have her in the lead, Badenoch is clearly confident of the support of a large but unknown number of MPs. A recent article in The Telegraph presented by Ben Spencer and Gareth Bacon, who are at opposite ends of the Conservative spectrum, uniting to support Badenoch as the only option to unite the party, quell the threat of Reform and neuter the Liberal Democrats. Some 12 experienced Peers in the House of Lords are backing Kemi Badenoch predicting she has what it takes to renew the party and the country, and urging MPs to put her on the ballot. Badenoch’s pitch is optimistic and focussed on conservative ideology.

Cleverly, with 21 supporters, formerly Foreign and Home Secretary, a seasoned diplomat with a sense of humour and a well-known face is appealing to conservative centrists. He has previously backed Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak, thus has the broadest experience across parliament and he believes he has accrued credentials for leader. At his campaign launch at the Old War Office he was introduced by MP Shivani Raja and former Defence Minister Grant Shapps.

Cleverley referenced Robert Peel, Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher to illustrate how decisive he would be as PM. He believes we live in an unstable world and has committed if elected PM to spend 3% of GDP on defence; he says there are trade-offs involved with immigration, and using GDP per capita as is better measure of the economy, so that the Treasury cannot just mask low growth with high immigration; nonetheless he would tackle the drivers of mass immigration, war, famine, persecution, economic failure; only migrants who play by the rules will be supported. He says British capitalism is not doing well enough compared to Asian and African growth rates, he wants to convert younger people into capitalists who understand the benefits of free markets. He is an advocate of less bureaucracy, less regulation, less tax and more private sector. Cleverly is the antithesis of Labour when he says “The state should not always be our first port of call when a problem arises. We should enable self-reliance, family-first resilience, community solutions. Tax and subsidise can’t be our mantra anymore.”

Tom Tugendhat, with 17 supporters, is a One Nation Conservative but not quite Cameron 2.0, his military background and recent role as Security Minister and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee give him extra gravitas compared to the other candidates. He is seen as serious, straightforward and honest with presence, his emphasis is on serving the country, thus voters can picture him as PM. Tugendhat acknowledges the problems did not start “yesterday” and the Tories are at a turning point in history, he says the party behaved more Stalinist than Conservative and voters deserve an apology. He is the only candidate to admit it could take two terms for Conservatives to regain power. He wants to move on from the politics of the past and not re-fight old battles; plans to uplift defence spending to 3%, wants to “derogate from some aspects of the ECHR” and renegotiate other areas he says different countries within the ECHR do different things, however he says” if necessary we need to leave”. Tugendhat will put cap of 100K on net migration, he says conservatism is about belonging which resonates with most conservatives; he wants to get away from high debt economy via investment and innovation doesn’t want to swop home made goods for Chinese investment; believes nuclear power and carbon capture will create a greener and fairer world, public service and the family are at the heart of his pitch.
Mel Stride, with 16 supporters, has years of international business experience in the “real world” and being Work and Pensions Secretary for Rishi Sunak, he is less well known to the general public, although not being associated with too much of what is past might actually be a benefit. He is self-assured and businesslike, some say he lacks the necessary charisma, but following the nationwide hustings during the summer recess he is confident that his profile has increased.

Again his message centres on uniting, building trust and reforming the party machine, his hero is John F. Kennedy. He’s a pilot and a former government whip who believes party members and associations have been neglected and treated as cash machines, he wants to end the CCHQ culture of parachuting in MP candidates without so much as a by-your-leave from the associations. He claims it was always Labour’s plan to raise taxes and cut pensioner benefits when they came in. Stride retained his seat in Central Devon by 61 votes a dramatic drop from previous years.

Just as an aside the department responsible for sourcing and approving Conservative Candidates has become leaderless and penniless, the two in charge have taken voluntary redundancy. It is even speculated that CCHQ might be relocated from its prestigious address in Matthew Parker Street.

All candidates have given the impression that previous governments had done many things to appease the left, ostensibly that governments had been bullied into positions that were not popular with conservative voters. Recently YouGov simulated a head-to-head debate and put candidates before random samples of members to establish who would perform best in a range of prospective matchups. The results were good news for Badenoch, who won all five of her head-to-heads, including beating Tom Tugendhat by 18 points (49%-31%), Robert Jenrick by 15 points (48%-33%), and she appeared to be ahead of James Cleverly at that stage in the contest (43%-34%).

Another recent Ipsos poll showed that 62% of “the public” are apathetic about who is the next Conservative leader, but in the final round it is not up to the public it is the members who make that call. At the time of writing it appears the next weakest candidate is Mel Stride, after the next elimination this week, it is which of the remaining four candidates that supporters will migrate to that will indicate who is likely to be on the ballot. At the time of writing it is believed that about 60% of Dame Priti’s supporters will go to Jenrick. To be on the ballot requires 41 supporters.

Among political circles it is thought that Badenoch and Jenrick are mentored by Michael Gove, former MP Nadine Dories who wrote the book about the manoeuvres inside No10 posted on X “If Conservative MPs vote Kemi into the final 2 they are also voting Gove—and Cummings and Dougie Smith too…”.Assuming Mel Stride is next to be eliminated, the possibilities for the final ballot are Badenoch vs Jenrick, or Badenoch/Jenrick vs Cleverly/Tugendhat. Next step for the four is the Tory Conference but whoever is elected Leader of the Opposition does not guarantee that they will still be leader when it comes to the 2029 general election.

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