It is more or less clear now that there are two aspects which could leave a huge impact on the outcome of the elections in Jammu and Kashmir. The first is the presence of Engineer Rashid, Lok Sabha MP, who is out on bail, and is being backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami. The second is the existential crisis that the PDP and Mehbooba Mufti face.
The PDP, which had, in the past, a sizable presence in South Kashmir, is struggling, and could either be completely eliminated in the polls, or would have a marginal presence. Rashid, who had defeated both Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone in the Parliamentary elections, is someone who has emerged as the “X” factor of the union territory.
His opponents are accusing him of pursuing the BJP agenda, but have no answers why he has been behind bars for so many years, if indeed he had any understanding with the saffron brigade. He is someone whom the National Conference fears and he could make a big dent in their strongholds, if the people support his nominees.
The Jamaat is playing a behind the scene role and its nominees are mostly Independents. The question that arises is that how can those affiliated to a banned organization, participate in an election and thus become the decisive force. Rashid and his followers have a sizable presence in North Kashmir and could also make a dent in Central Kashmir, where the National Conference has always been strong. What is baffling experts is that the voting pattern in the elections is something which cannot be easily explained.
It is a common belief that since 1951, the only fair elections that were held in the erstwhile state were in 1977 when Sheikh Abdullah was elected the Chief Minister with the support of the National Conference. He had ensured that the polls were without any foul play since it would add to the legitimacy of his being the head of the government. The supreme irony is that when the Sheikh had the support of 75 MLAs, 73 of them who had been elected unopposed in 1951, he could not become the CM. However, when he replaced Syed Mir Qasim in 1975, after an understanding with Indira Gandhi, he was elected CM with Congress MLAs backing him and his party having no role in the elevation. It was for the first time in 1977, that the National Conference led by him and his core group came to power.
The elections in Kashmir have always been very complex. Virtually every time, there were allegations of large-scale rigging, and on most occasions, the people have boycotted the polls on the call of either the separatists or some other force. The voter turnout was always low and those who won were declared elected with very less percentage of votes cast in their favour. There is also this tale where most of the regime changes in the erstwhile state were not brought about by elections but by developments that took place midway. The Abdullahs have been a major force in the state and are perceived to be one family that has stood by the Indian State. But in the fast-changing political situation at the ground level, the future of established parties is at stake.
Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed terrorism for several decades. To begin with the terrorist activity was mostly in the northern part and once in a while was witnessed in the central region. However, of late, the terrorists, trained and equipped by forces beyond our borders, have shifted their focus to South Kashmir and Jammu.
According to authoritative sources, the new set of militants are armed with night vision devices and sophisticated communication equipment, which many say was a part of the arms and ammunition etc. left by the Americans in Afghanistan, when Washington decided to withdraw from that country, thus empowering the Taliban. The new set of terrorists are guided through a satellite network from Pakistan and use the Pir Panjal ranges to escape detection, using the heavy forest cover for their safety. Security experts state that a number of cell-phone and communication towers have cropped up on the other side of the Line of Control, providing facilitation to the terrorists.
What is being seen in the ongoing election is that like in the past, the voting pattern in Jammu and Kashmir could be different. The polling in Jammu has been heavy, and it is not known whether this would favour the BJP or in the close contests, could spring some surprises as well. On Thursday during the second phase, the overall voting percentage in the entire J&K region was close to 57%, with the lowest being reported from the Srinagar district.
The Congress, which had a sizable presence in the erstwhile state, is the only party which has its workers both in Jammu and Kashmir but its success rate is something which is unknown. The issues that are figuring are also confusing. While upfront, there is concern over unemployment, rising prices and absence of basic amenities at some places, the backdrop of the restoration of statehood is equally significant. It is more or less certain that Article 370 is history, and there is no hope of it being ever restored. This is an issue which may have affected the population, but people have by and large reconciled with the abrogation. The region may shortly have an elected government and perhaps full statehood. Between us.