On 08 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was removing General Valerii Zaluzhny from command of the military, and promoting General Oleksandr Syrsky, the Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, to replace him. “I thanked him for two years of defence of Ukraine,” President Zelenskyy said on social media, adding: “We also discussed who could be in the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
General Zaluzhny, had gained enormous credit for spearheading the successful effort by Ukraine’s forces to halt and then reverse Russia’s initial attack launched on 24 February 2022. He was appointed Commander-in-Chief in July 2021, just half a year before Russia launched its all-out invasion.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine under his leadership had succeeded in pushing back initial Russian advances near the capital Kyiv, and then led successful counteroffensives later in 2022 freeing parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Both General Zaluzhny and General Syrskyi played key roles in those campaigns.
The dismissal ended weeks of speculation about the fate General Valery Zaluzhny, whose relationship with President Zelensky had deteriorated and there were strong rumours regarding his exit.
FRICTION HAS BEEN BREWING
The Ukrainian forces under General Zaluzhny had contained the initial Russian onslaught. That was a great achievement — because almost everybody, expected the Russian forces to steam roll their way across the plains of Ukraine. But lately his record was tarnished by the failure of last year’s counteroffensive, which ran into well-prepared Russians defences.
Last year’s highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, using soldiers trained by NATO allies and with Western weapons and equipment, reclaimed little territory, falling far short of expectations. The Ukrainian counter offensive last year led to a blame game in Washington, with the US military, and some Ukrainians, suggesting that if General Zaluzhny had taken their advice and concentrated his forces to attack on a narrow front (rather than attacking in several places simultaneously), the Ukrainians could have broken through.
Strangely, because it was because of such attacks on narrow fronts that the Russian army tried several times immediately following the invasion, and that led to repeated disasters. It ignores the fact that just as US satellite intelligence allowed the Ukrainians to identify local Russian concentrations and to concentrate in turn, so Russian satellite intelligence would do the same when it the Ukrainians were attacking.
The truth is that by the summer of 2023 the Ukrainian army simply did not have the superiority in manpower and firepower that would have allowed it to break through heavily fortified lines manned by a numerous and well-armed enemy. To have succeeded against these odds would have been a quite exceptionally unusual event in military history. Nor is there any significant prospect that the Ukrainians will be able to succeed in the future; for even if they receive new Western weaponry over the next year, Russia will be using the year still further to fortify its defensive lines
The President and General Zaluzhny also increasingly differed over strategy and there was the underlining fear that General Zaluzhny’s increasing popularity both within the military and among ordinary citizens, made him a potential political threat to President Zelenskyy. A poll by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology found 88% of Ukrainians supported the General. Presidents Zelensky’s approval rating, though also high, was markedly lower at 62%.
But of all the reasons been mentioned it is the difference regarding new conscription law that would increase the size of the military. There was reported disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize this year.
General Zaluzhny proposed mobilizing close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelensky viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns and training facilities and the potential challenges related to recruitment.
President Zelensky said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts. General Zaluzhny countered that Ukraine is already short of forces because of mounting casualties and needs to match 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilize. In an opinion piece for CNN General Zaluzhny wrote about “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our Armed Forces without the use of unpopular measures”.
A lesson of this war is that victory depends on a combination of the most recent weaponry with large numbers of fighting soldiers. In 2022, Russian defeats were largely attribute due to the fact that they invaded with too few troops. The Ukrainian success in Kharkiv in September 2022 owed much to the fact that on that front they considerably outnumbered the Russians.
It is also reported that an essay for the Economist last year that infuriated President Zelenskyy, as General Zaluzhny compared the state of the conflict to a stalemate like the First World War. General Valery Zaluzhny, said; “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate”. He also stated that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” This grim view of the war, clashed with President Zelenskyy’s effort to show that Ukraine is making good progress in order to ensure that Ukraine’s allies stay committed.
In a CNN article, General Zaluzhny suggested that Ukraine’s leadership had not tackled problems in the defence industries which had led to production bottlenecks and ammunition shortages. He warned Ukraine was now having to “contend with a reduction in military support from key allies” as they have become ensnarled by their own political tensions and distracted by conflicts elsewhere. He said the best way for Ukraine’s army to avoid being drawn into a “positional war,” in which fighting is conducted along permanent and fortified frontlines, is for Ukraine to “master” unmanned weapons systems – or drones – which he called the “central driver of this war.”
Colonel Oleksandr, a Battalion Commander fighting in Eastern Ukraine has been quoted in the Washington Post as saying; “My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority.” “This is a catastrophic step,” he said;” The morale of both the military and society will go way down.”
THE NEW COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
General Oleksandr Syrsky, the 58-year-old Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, who is the new Commander-in – Chief was credited with leading the defence of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the North Eastern Kharkiv region in 2022.
General Syrskyi, began his soldiering career during the last years of the Soviet Union, training in Moscow. With Ukraine’s independence in 1991, he rose through the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces becoming a Major General in 2009. He played a prominent role in Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invaders in the eastern Donbas region in 2014 and 2015.
Two years later he became the Commander of all Ukrainian forces involved in the Anti-Terrorist Operation, as the conflict with Russia in Eastern Ukraine became known.
But as per a report in the Washington Post, he is especially disliked, among rank-and-file soldiers as he is considered by many to be a Soviet-style Commander who kept forces under fire too long in Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.
As per the Financial Times, some analysts have expressed misgivings about General Syrsky’s decision-making since February 2022 and concerns over his ability to resist political interference in operational matters.
THE FUTURE
The upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Ukraine in the war, amid intensified Russian attacks, wrangling in the United States over providing aid to Ukraine and brings to the fore the tensions between Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership.
Proposed aid for Ukraine has stalled in Washington and Brussels because of internal political disputes in the United States and the European Union. House Republicans have blocked a White House request for an additional $60 billion related to the war in Ukraine.
General Zaluzhny’s removal also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.
The decision to remove the senior military leadership in the midst of conflict poses risks, including a disruption to operational planning. But President Zelensky said a new command team must begin by laying out “a detailed action plan for the year ahead.” However, future plan will need to account for the uncertainty around the pace and quantity of Western weapons and the challenges in recruiting news soldiers to the fight. There is no doubt that post the 07 October Hamas attack on Israel, the focus of the Western powers has shifted and this is affecting aid to Ukraine.
CONCLUSION
General Zaluzhny posted on Facebook: “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy. The tasks of 2022 are different from the tasks of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to new realities as well.” He added a picture of him and the President shaking hands and smiling. He was also awarded the title of hero, according to an Executive Order published on the Ukrainian President’s website.
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov thanked General Zaluzhny for his “achievements and victories”, but added: “Battles 2022, 2023 and 2024 are three different realities. 2024 will bring new changes for which we must be ready. New approaches, new strategies are needed.”
Until now, Ukraine has enjoyed relative stability in its military ranks compared with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin had named General Valery Gerasimov to the top job one year ago, dismissing General Sergei Surovikin, who had been in the post for just three months.
“The Kyiv regime has many problems, and everything has gone wrong there, that’s for sure,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 07 February when asked about General Zaluzhny’s possible dismissal. “Obviously, the failed counteroffensive and problems at the front increase the disagreements between members of the Kyiv regime.”
The dismissal however brings to the fore civil -military relations in times of conflicts and the differing perceptions on how to conduct war. It appears that General Zaluzhny wasn’t willing to force attacks without actual equipment and reserves to keep up appearances.
Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM retired from the Indian Army.